Oct 8, 2011

Weekly review / Седмичен преглед

I expected a bottom for SP500 around 1080. The index hit 1076 and we saw very strong bounce. I think it was the bottom for this move lower. The sentiment is very bearish so the next move must reset it and that means a rally at least 2-3 months so everybody can forget the pain.

Next I expect a higher low which will confirm that the bottom is in.
Alternate scenario with low probability, if I am wrong, is plunge lower to major support ~1020.

Short term - SP500 broke slightly the channel but the histogram is moving lower and the index made small double top, so the next week I think we will see higher low developing. On the chart the target is 1120 but the moves are very volatile so it can be 1100 too.... anyway expect higher low.

I have shown already the similarities between 2007 and now in older posts. Look at the chart two months later.
Look at the price action and the indicators. Exactly the same picture. That is one of the reasons why I think that the bottom is in.

Another reason for a intermediate term bottom - SP500 making lower low but VXO lower high.

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