Mar 25, 2012

Weekly review / Седмичен преглед

Short term view - short term bottom next week.
Intermediate term view - topping process into early April and correction lasting till mid June early July.

The histogram is pointing down, I am expecting SP500 to hit support and the lower channel line of the wedge around 1375-1380 followed by a short living rally. Multiple point of divergence on MACD I think the move since October is topping.
The topping is a process it needs time so be patient:)

Short term - on the hourly chart the histogram and MACD are pointing up so probably 1 or 2 days on the upside then we finish the pullback. A reaction of the same size 38 points like the last one, points to the support area 1413-38=1375.

McClellan Oscillator - I think we will see a divergence with the next move lower and a short term bottom next week.
The longer term indicators show divergences so I think the move from October low is topping.
Bullish Percentage
Percent of Stocks above MA50
Fear Indicator VXO

CYCLES (TD - trading days)
The 20TD average cycles is 13TD old. I think it has several more days to go. Cycles are supporting the technical picture - short term bottom next week.

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technic spots areas of exhaustion.
Sequential within Countdown finished, but bar 9 is lower than bar 7 so one more push up expected.
Countdown and Combo reached bar 10 so unfinished business on the upside till we count 13 bars.
So this chart tells me there will be one more push up.

No comments:

Post a Comment