Jul 7, 2012

Weekly review

Short term view - difficult to predict the exact path, but I expect move lower to 1320
Intermediate term view - intermediate term bottom on June 4-th and higher prices till mid August.

Pretty close to what I was expecting - the SP500 futures touched 1380 and the upper trend line, the cash index made it only to 1375.

What is next? - On daily chart we have divergence on the Histogram so it will take time till its cleared. I think the wedge will be broken and a trend channel will be formed, which means move lower to ~1320 is underway.

Short time - its difficult to predict the exact path of the small moves. I think that we will see flat correction. The first leg down was 54 points now we are in the second one. Another 54 points means move to around ~1320 and the target lies at the lower parallel line of the channel.
Intermediate term - the divergence on the histogram looks very ugly for the bulls. I am speculating that it will be worked out with more time than price retracement because the histogram on the weekly chart is still pointing up. I think we are currently in B of in A-B-C move and after mid July we will see another move higher.
If 1320 respectively the channel is broken, than the picture will be very bearish - new lows ahead.

Market Breadth Indicators are still in buy mode. McClellan Oscillator hit extremes again so this pullback is no surprise.
McClellan Oscillator - hit extremes but no divergence so this move should be a correction.
McClellan Summation Index - still on buy
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - still on buy
Bullish Percentage - still on buy
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in no mans land ~59, did not reach overbought levels so no red flag here.
Fear Indicator VXO - moved lower with SP500, so the traders are not worried about a correction.
Put to Call Ratio - still on buy

CYCLES (TD - trading days)
Small cycle currently 8 days long.... waiting for the low of this cycle before moving higher.

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Currently we have combo/countdown at 8 and after this move is finished the indexes should continue moving higher. On Friday we saw price flip (close lower than 4 days ago). If I am right we will see a choppy move lower and not a setup.

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