practical technical analysis: Update

Jul 11, 2013

Update

I can not post in the next three weeks, but now it looks clear which scenario is playing out, so I do not expect surprises in the next 2-3 weeks.
Enjoy the rally in the next weeks.

As I said yesterday the scenario with another leg lower has very low probability. This has been confirmed today. On the other hand this rally still looks suspicious... we had several gaps even today a huge one and we have never seen follow through. Where is the gap an go??? I think this is because this rally is not part of a new leg higher(although we will see a new high), but it is part of a topping process. I am showing this scenario for months(see the weekly chart)... I think we have distribution...

TECHNICAL PICTURE
Short term - small pullbacks along the way to the previous high before a correction with low above 1625 and than all time highs:)

Intermediate term - I can not say how high... at least ~1720 or touch of the trend line around 1770.

Long term - we are on the way to all time highs. If the top takes the same path like the previous 3 occasions this should be the highest high in the topping sequence of highs.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators -
McClellan Oscillator -
McClellan Summation Index -
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index -
Bullish Percentage -
Percent of Stocks above MA50 -
Fear Indicator VXO -
Issues Advancing -
Issues Declining -

HURST CYCLES

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)

Disclaimer: The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, including advertisements, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the opinions of sponsors or firms affiliated with the author(s). The author may or may not have a position in any company or advertiser referenced above. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or advertisement on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions. The author(s) of the posts on this site are not investment advisors and they do not offer investment advice. They try to provide some hopefully useful information - especially concerning technical analysis - and then add their own analysis. All the content on this website is solely an expression of the author's personal interests and is posted as free-of-charge opinion and commentary. Nothing here is intended as investment advice. If you seek investment advice, consult a registered, qualified investment advisor.