Jul 11, 2013


I can not post in the next three weeks, but now it looks clear which scenario is playing out, so I do not expect surprises in the next 2-3 weeks.
Enjoy the rally in the next weeks.

As I said yesterday the scenario with another leg lower has very low probability. This has been confirmed today. On the other hand this rally still looks suspicious... we had several gaps even today a huge one and we have never seen follow through. Where is the gap an go??? I think this is because this rally is not part of a new leg higher(although we will see a new high), but it is part of a topping process. I am showing this scenario for months(see the weekly chart)... I think we have distribution...

Short term - small pullbacks along the way to the previous high before a correction with low above 1625 and than all time highs:)

Intermediate term - I can not say how high... at least ~1720 or touch of the trend line around 1770.

Long term - we are on the way to all time highs. If the top takes the same path like the previous 3 occasions this should be the highest high in the topping sequence of highs.

The Market Breadth Indicators -
McClellan Oscillator -
McClellan Summation Index -
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index -
Bullish Percentage -
Percent of Stocks above MA50 -
Fear Indicator VXO -
Issues Advancing -
Issues Declining -


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