Aug 20, 2013

McClellan Oscillator and corrections

The McClellan Oscillator is a great tool to identify bottoms.... not at every bottom you will see an NYMO extreme to warn you, but when you see values between -80 and -110 a bottom is around the corner. What kind of a bottom? - make you homework and assess the market. It can be short term or intermediate term bottom. NYMO is just an oscillator and it will not warn you about trend change.
Look at the chart bellow and you will see an indicator which is very reliable when you watch for extremes.

This brings me to the situation today and why I post the chart. I saw NYMO at -80 on Friday and I wrote that short term bottom is near. I did not know what will happen on Monday it could always move lower as it did(now at -100). If NYMO continues with it's 100% successful track record:) based on the chart bellow there is two options - the correction is soon over and the second option the first leg of the correction is over.
Lets say I am right and this is just the first leg:) there is two occasions with similar corrections when NYMO hit extremes(marked with the big circles) for the first and the second leg of the correction. What happened after the first extreme(marked with arrows) - multi day rebound occurred 9 and 15 trading days. I expect the scenario to repeat, not only NYMO is oversold there is other signs too. I expect a relief at least for a week.

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