Sep 17, 2014

Update

There is now five waves up from Monday and FOMC is behind us... this could be just wave 1 of 5 but on the other side this is enough for a final wave 5.
Given the indicators a little bit higher will look better, but be very careful here.... with this ugly daily candle we should not see a gap lower tomorrow or it is game over.

11 comments:

  1. So now that Scotland is out of the way...and Alibaba, too....should we expect a higher high near 2025 before a correction begins....or just what should we watch for the correction to begin???

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    1. I think the move up is over. The daily candle is ugly reversal candle. The internal structure looks like 5 waves down and 61,8% Fibo retracement.
      Move bellow yesterdays low 2006 and my system will trigger sell signal.
      Personally I would trade it this way - if the open on Monday is bellow the close 2010 sell with stop at 2015 above this last minor high.
      A lot of signs for a top with no confirmation of course. But with tight stop the risk is not so high and such setups should be traded:)

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  2. Almost forgot, ....the Bonds seem to have established a bottom....but I am not sure IF you would agree with that...what is your take ? HAve the Bonds and Notes set at least a temporary bottom?

    Thanks ....Appreciate your hard work....this stuff is never easy!

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    1. The forecast for a bottom between 112-113 played out great:)
      Oversold oscillators, gap higher and close above the high for the last five days... definitely this should be at least short term bottom.

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  3. Hai krasi,1820 8 or 9 oktober?.tq krasi

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    1. No, I do not think it will be so fast.... and there is an alternate scenario that this is not the top

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  4. Carnap:
    TD Sequential not ended yet min. five days missing, EW structures indicates a more complex ending pattern since the elongation rule for a regular 5 wave impulse patttern is not fulfilled
    spread quote rsi 10y treasury -spx is giving a sell signal. Over all I suspect there are a few days missing for a topping out end sept/beginning october.
    [URL=http://www.pic-upload.de/view-24670000/spx-spreadq.png.html][IMG]http://www11.pic-upload.de/thumb/20.09.14/pl4baetfad.png[/IMG][/URL]

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    1. I have the same suspicion:) something does not feel right. Probably this is only a short term top.
      That is why I have not posted today.... I wanted to take a better look at the charts.

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  5. Carnap:
    Sorry picture can´t be seen for somehow. Alternative see
    http://chartbuster.wordpress.com/

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  6. Krasi, is the rally in TLT a B-wave rally or a new 5-waver to new highs in your opinion? Thanks. Look forward to your weekly outlook.

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    1. I do not have intraday charts... from the daily the wave lower looks like an impulse so this should be a B wave and one more leg lower to the next target 110 should be expected.

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