Nov 14, 2015

Weekly preview

Short term view - bounce higher for a few days.
Intermediate term view - the correction to continue for another 2 weeks followed by a deep retracement.

The indexes turned lower as expected.... not a surprise when you watch the right pattern:)

Nothing new since last week. I think the correction is not over, but we should see a bounce higher soon for a few days.
When it is over and we have finished structure - impulse or zigzag, we will know which pattern is running. For the moment the flat has highest probability.

Short term - move below support 2080-2085, test of the broken support level and MA50 and continuation lower. Classical reversal and technical analysis.
Now RSI is oversold and the price far from MA50.... so I expect a bounce higher to begin soon.
Intermediate term if flat is the right pattern we should see an impulse similar to the red path.

Intermediate term - preferred pattern is flat (red). In this case we should see a wave 1 lower. Alternate if we see higher high probably much larger expanded flat.

Long term - no change

The Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower and issued sell signal. Many of them were flashing "problems ahead" for a while so it is not a surprise.
McClellan Oscillator - in oversold territory, bounce higher?
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - sell signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - as I wrote last week narrow BB(low volatility) precede strong moves higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - heading lower...

Day 34 of the 40 day cycle.

Week 12 of the 20 week cycle.

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Price flip on the weekly chart and setup at 6 negated. On the daily chart setup at 6 and high probability that it will be finished. This is bearish.... confirms so far the idea for wave C of a flat.

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