Jan 7, 2016


Ok we have exactly the same story like in August(well visible on the DAX), but a little bit more mild.
A "crash" or severe sell off lasts 5-8 days. In August 6 days in row with 4 gaps now we have so far 5 days in a row with 3 gaps.
The move starts as a corrective and than we have a waterfall. The same problems China stocks and currency devaluation.

I did not like the bearish scenario in August because such moves scare the traders way too much way too fast. I do not like some very bearish scenario again because of the same reason plus the move from the top is three waves a-b-c with a=c.

I read everywhere bear market.... call me idiot, but I think this is just wave b of X. This scenario looks much better as an EW pattern and from cycle perspective.
If I am right we should see bottoming today and tomorrow. That does not mean to go long wait for confirmation.
Even in the bearish case(red) I think we will see at least a bounce from the trend line and some gaps closed before continuing lower.

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