Jul 12, 2016

Update - the bearish scenario

Russell2000 has the most clear picture for this correction... the correction which makes new ATH:) The alternate scenario is the indexes continue vertically higher to clear the divergences which are building.

Waiting for wave iv of c of B

I think we have expanded flat with target 1205-1215 for B than lower to the support zone.

Similar picture for SP500 the two targets for the expanded flat are 2150 and 2168. The second looks more probable.

Similar picture for the DAX waiting for iv and v of c of B


  1. What would trigger you to change your view?

    1. - if I see an impulse at the moment we have two moves higher with the same size.
      - the markets rally for another 2 weeks or longer... not just hanging at the highs really moving higher like 2200.
      - indicators/market breadth making higher highs and clear the divergences.
      - indicators/market breadth reset lower and market hanging around burning time with a sideway move.

      One of this conditions will be enough. The same rules which made me call August 2105/February 2016/Brexit sell off bullshit are telling me this move is not very healthy.
      I will stay stubborn and follow my rules:)
      This is forecasting side on the trading side it was clear that the price will move higher and as I wrote two weeks ago trading takes precedence and you trade on the long side the move will last a few weeks. Personally I do not feel comfortable the indexes are close to my target and I am out. By the way I think they are in small wave iv and one final high is left