Aug 17, 2016

Update

It looks more and more like a top to me with the divergences on the daily chart and finished pattern on the hourly chart.
The EW pattern changed, it looks like an ED from early August (not just the last 5 of 5 of 5). This is the weak spot of EW it often mutates and you can not predict it no matter how good you are. Anyway this are small waves from lower degree and we knew to expect something lower this week.
Usually the big boys move the price in the opposite direction when a news is expected(FOMC this time), so I will be surprised if we do not see a pop-up higher, but after that a move lower should begin.

Daily chart - next target should be the support area and MA50

15 comments:

  1. Hi Krasi,
    I see the ED on both SPX and Dow but the RUT does not have the 5 waves on the 1hr...am i missing something?

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    1. Yes RUT looks different... I do not know what kind of pattern we have. I am just watching at the moment... I do not believe in trend reversal and big move lower. I think this will come later.

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  2. Hi Krasi,
    interesting....how far are you thinking we drop to for SPX? RUT?
    jules

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    1. We are entering the time window for a low so any move lower should be short living.... maybe sharp but short living.
      We should see at least some kind of a double top before something more serious.... that is why I do not try to time this top.
      I watch the lower trend line for SP500 is around 2090 for RUT 1170 at the moment.

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  3. Hi Krasi, Are you saying there should be a higher high on RUT?

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    1. At the moment the best EW pattern for me is diagonal and cycles look very strong right translated - both means higher high in September after short living correction. After that we should see a bigger correction.

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  4. Good question....
    Looks like we had an impulse on the way down two days ago...i dont think we will have a higher high...but lets wait for the teacher KRASI!!! --Jules

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    1. Short term we should not see a higher high rather a correction for 2 weeks.
      Intermediate term I expect higher high at the moment.

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    2. Great thank you!

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    3. Great thank you teacher KRASI! Thats what i thought too.
      --Jules

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  5. What is your target for wave c?

    Thanks

    Kali

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    1. Which wave c do you mean?

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    2. I assume we are in b of corrective phase which will likely end shortly followed by c.

      -Kali

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    3. If correction is already running this should be 1-2 of a. The correction should be something like 50-100 points not just 20 points.

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    4. Thanks.

      I have lot to learn. Thanks for your insight and patience.

      Kali

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