Sep 27, 2016

Update

UPDATE:
DJ is the weakest index and the bearish option looks much better. The charts look more and more like we are in wave 4 (from the February low) just waiting for one final wave lower and 40 week cycle low. For SP500 and DJ the pattern is double zig-zag and for Russell2000 flat correction.
P.S. the RUT index disappeared from freestockcharts.com?!?!?!? Am I the only one having the problem?

Here is how RUT should lok like if I am right.




From the weekend - "Short term - at the moment I think we should expect a move higher, but not so strong as the most think. The alternate scenario is a quick lower low with divergences before turning higher again."
As expected the market is not so strong as many thought. The move from the bottom 12.09 is overlapping so the bullish option is an ED, the bearish option at least a move lower with the same size to the support level.

And a chart to show what I am talking about.

26 comments:

  1. Thanks Krasi! So even in the bullish scenario we should see a move down to 2135 first..is that your expectation? (or is that not as important to the analysis you are showing)

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    1. It is important we should see one more move lower or the patterns will look incomplete(different pattern is running).

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    2. You're the man! Thank you

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  2. Thx Krasi! A picture is worth a thousand words.
    Also for those of us in the usa, 12.9 refers to sept 12

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    1. Ha-ha right the date format is different in the USA. Yes, it is 12th of September.

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  3. thank you for your TIMELY analysis! Like someone said earlier...YOU R THE MAN! thanks. much appreciated

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  4. Is it possible to maybe use Russell 2000 futures or IWM to show the flat correction you are expecting? Thanks

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    1. Added TNA chart. The same moves for the RUT the previous low is around 1205-1210.
      That makes 4% correction from the top which is exactly what is expected for wave 4 pullback.

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    2. Great thank you Krasi

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    3. thank you Krasi....what target can we expect for wave 5? when we have ED, wave5 equates to wave1 or only 61.8%?
      Thanks

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    4. Yesterday I was playing with Fibonacci measurements:) There is several different measurements for wave 5, but because wave 1 is very long and wave 3 can not be the shortest the only Fibo relation between wave 5 and 1 which makes sense is 5=61,8% of 1

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    5. my question was for RUSSELL, are you seeing the move from June (brexit) as an ending diagonal or simply as a regular impulse?

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    6. From June is just a normal impulse

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    7. Krasi, looks like such a count violates EW rules? wave4 would overlap wave1....? no?
      wave1 on TNA goes to 74 and wave4 will overlpa

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    8. The high for wave1 from the June low is around 64,5 for TNA.

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  5. Krasi,

    The new update with double zig zag is definitely an elegant solution to the recent dissimilarities in Nasdaq and spy charts! Very insightful.

    Thanks,

    Kali

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  6. Krasi, you wrote:
    he charts look more and more like we are in wave 4 (from the February low) just waiting for one final wave "lower" and 40 week cycle low.

    was that a typo? did you mean: just waiting for one final wave HIGHER and then a drop for the 40 week low...?

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    1. I was talking about the pattern from the top - one more wave lower is needed for a finished pattern.
      And for the small internal waves I showed on the chart that the corrective wave higher is not finished.

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  7. krasi, any thoughts on oil with the strong move these past couple days? thanks

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    1. It will be difficult to explain with words:) I think Oil is in wave B higher from the August low. If it follows the rhythm of the indexes we should see a move lower than higher to finished this wave B. After that we should see strong wave C lower to finish a correction from the top in June.
      See my last long term update the oil chart just the move higher from the MA200 is stronger.

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  8. Krasi- You are really incredible...how did you know it would turn lower like this instead of continuinf to go higher?? No rush on my question, but I'm just amazed..and just trying to get smarter...what indicator or TA made you so convinced?

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    1. The only forward looking tool is Elliott waves and my forecast was based on it. It does not mean it is magical tool many will tell you it is a bullshit:) Two-three weeks I did no know what is going on because there were too many combinations, but when you nail the pattern such "magical" things happen.
      From TA the earliest signal on my mind is RSI with trend lines. When a trend line is broken a move in the opposite direction begins, but you need again extra analysis to know what kind of move to expect.

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  9. Just found your site Krasi and I must say I am absolutely amazed by all the information. I'm still learning everything about what you've posted, and hope to become a better trader. Thanks man.

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  10. What a day...markets looked like they were going to close at the highs of the day and then nose dive into the close with futures ending at 2156.75 at 5pm EST. Very much looking forward to Krasi's weekly weekend update ;-)

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  11. Krasi,

    The market closed exactly below the resistance line on your DJ-30 chart and was unable to break out. Downward trend looks intact toward the wave "c".

    Will see how this unfolds next week!

    Kali

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