Short term view - waiting for the final waves iv and v higher and the move to be finished.
Intermediate term view - when it is finished the high should be an intermediate term top followed by a correction for 2 months.
Nothing new, the indexes moved higher as expected. The move develops as an impulse and now waiting for waves iv and v so that we have a finished pattern.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - small pop after the long weekend should finish wave iii then wave iv should begin. Target around 2325-2330 - 38,2% Fibo/the trend line/MA50.
Support and invalidation level is now around 2300.
Intermediate term - the same like last week. Momentum(histogram) is up, RSI no such strong divergence, but only for SPX(other indexes are ok) and well visible MACD divergence.
Long term - no change, waiting for the wave from Feb.2016 to be finished.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - many indicators did not move higher despite the strong move, they ignored it - a red flag. The big picture is bearish with divergences, now waiting for the indicators to turn lower and sell signal.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero despite the strong move higher.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - in overbought territory, no sell signal so far.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - another lower high, despite the strong move.
Fear Indicator VIX - even more tight BB, is not moving lower despite the strongest part of this wave higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower despite the rally.
Day 13 of the 40 day
Week 4 of the last 20 week cycle..... waiting for the 18 month cycle high.
Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Now we have finished 9-13-9 on the daily and weekly chart. The first sell signal is if you see a price flip,but there is no such so far - momentum is up and above the MA.