Jun 23, 2018

Weekly preview

Short term view - we should see something to the upside.
Intermediate term view - this is huge corrective move for me. When the momentum trade NDX/RUT is over the major indexes SPX/DJI will turn lower.

More of the same crap... technically all bullish patterns are in tact, but I doubt we have an impulse. It is taking too long and for the DOW only the diagonal for w1 looks possible. DJ looks like impulse lower so more to the downside after a pop up, RUT/NDX should correct lower.... in the mean time SPX rallying higher third wave? I doubt it. Again I do not see indicators/market breadth/cycles supporting iii of 3 around the corner. Next week the bulls deliver one vertical move up above 2800 or it is game over.

I see indexes like NDX/RUT/XBI with finished wave IV(Feb 2016) and now finishing 3 of V while SPX/DJI/NYSE with huge corrective pattern. Non confirmation at important top, why not?


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - so far the trend lines and support is holding. Something to the upside from the trend line/support/MA 200 and mid-cycle low will look better. I can not say if we will see higher high or not.... if we see the price breaking below the trend line and support you can say good bye to the impulse patterns.


Intermediate term - the same like last week. Waiting for the market to confirm one of the scenarios - impulse or corrective wave.


Long term - ugly looking indicators. The histogram three positive bars already and no strong rally. RSI with flat angle of ascend testing the broken trend line - normal half of the weekly candles for the "rally" are red. Look at the sell off in February and March two weeks and then we have months trying to retrace... 13 weeks(3 months) trying to retrace the sell off from March, 19 weeks from the February low unsuccessfully so far. I can not see bullish signs only weakness.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower, but too early to say we have strong sell signall.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - turned lower.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - turned lower.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - touched the 75 level and turned lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - turned up.
Advance-Decline Issues - several highs, turned lower and broke the trend line connecting the lows.


HURST CYCLES
Day 18 of the 40 day cycle. I am expecting mid-cycle low and final move higher for the top of the 20 week cycle, no guarantee that it will be a higher high.


Week 11 for the 20 week cycle. It should turn lower soon.

8 comments:

  1. Hi Krasi
    Thank you for posting your analysis. I checked Dow and S&P history all the way to 1987 crash. One interesting observation I made is that in only one instance these two indexes did not experience a retest of their highs after a longer run ups to their first top. After that we had 3 recessions and the indexes always made at least one or two retests. This leads me to one conclusion: most likely both of the indexes will retest the highs and if they don’t then we are going to experience a sudden crash. A crash may be caused by the ongoing trade disputes, for now I can’t see other triggers yet. If the market shrugs the trade quarrels off then most likely we should see a new high. What do you think about looking at it from this angle?
    Thanks
    Kris

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There is only one angle and this is price behavior. At the moment it is not bullish.
      Either the bulls deliver vertical move up in the next 1-2 weeks or it is game over with the third wave.

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  2. Now it seems we begin the impulsive down pattern? What's the potential target? Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not really, so far it is only a-b-c with 4/5 to finish c.
      If we see a close at the low today 2710 than it is possible that this is third wave from an impulse.

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    2. krasi whats you target s and p end of month

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    3. Test of the low from late May then correction higher.

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  3. Replies
    1. Just a test of the last high that is all

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