Jul 28, 2018

Weekly preview

Three weeks later the pattern continue as expected - intermediate term low and higher, most likely 20 week cycle low. The only "surprise" is I thought the move lower will last another week or two before turning up.

From the low in April the move is corrective - the options are ED or wave B. SPX looks stronger because of the tech stocks and most analysis I see are ED, but this just masks the real pattern. Looking at the DAX/DJI and the indicators I think this is just wave B.
It does not matter in both cases the path is the same - pullback, another leg higher and 10% lower for 18 month cycle low in October /November.

Short term - the upper trend line was hit one more time with MACD/RSI divergences and SPX turned lower. I think the next move is pullback to the previous high and MA50 daily around 2770-2790.

Intermediate term - most analysis I read are talking about a diagonal. There is a few variations of it and I am showing the one if you count a triangle. I do not believe it, but again the path is the same even if this is B wave so I do not care much. I think it is wave B(see the chart below).

This is DJ line chart which shows more clear what is going on. The indicators confirm this pattern.
The chart shows clear a-b-c/A from the January top and RSI/MACD confirm it - two legs lower. Then you have two zig-zags higher for a/B again the indicators are saying you have one leg higher from the early April low - no interruption in the middle for triangle. Sharp sell off b/B most likely 20 week cycle low which explains the strength higher. Now we need one more zig-zag c=a/B for complete pattern.
For the SP500 tech stocks strength is masking it, but it is the same.... even for NDX I will not be surprised to see a pullback and another high for finished B wave to surprise most traders which are counting flat wave IV and now finished impulse wave V with major top.

Long term - we are seeing "at least one more high" which I am talking about for months.... if we are lucky this is wave B with C and 5/V to follow. For traders this will be the perfect scenario - great moves to trades much better than diagonal.

Market Breadth Indicators - do not show a lot of strength, rather we have some divergences despite the strong rally.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - second top with divergence so far.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - heading higher for an intermediate term high in several weeks.
Bullish Percentage - second top at the same level despite 150 points rally.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - second top divergence so far.
Fear Indicator VIX - divergences are building.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.

Day 19 from the 40 day cycle. Pullback for mid-cycle low expected. I have adjusted the daily cycles because of the shorter 20 week cycle.

Week 4 of the next 20 week cycle. I think we have 20 week cycle low at the end of June.

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Finished setup and countdown running at 7.


  1. Please Can you give me a comment on commodity Sugar n.11? I know you don't follow It bit tour forecast is very important. Thanks

    1. From the top late 2017 it looks like finished impulse lower with divergences RSI/MACD on the weekly and daily chart so the next bigger move should be up to 0,13 resistance and MA200.

  2. Thank you for the update Krasi. I hope that you had a nice vacation. It's good for someone like you to take time off periodically in order to regain a sense of perspective. I enjoy reading your analysis very much.

  3. Hi Krasi! Thank you for your insight and analysis. I failed to understand your logic before with regards to your persistence on the development of the B wave. At that time I was convinced that once the triangle correction in S&P was over a new set 5 waves should follow. From you explanation here it seems that the correction is not quite over yet, where B is still running and C is to follow. I guess I was not aware that you can have a double whammy correction, an A B C and a triangle within it. Or am I misinterpreting the whole thing altogether? Kris

    1. I do not see a triangle. a-b-c/A early April since then zig-zags so either ED or another corrective wave B.

    2. I thought you were referring to triangle correction in S&p between Jan and April, May in your previous posts.

  4. Hello Krasi Have you got any thought about coffee?it is now by a multiyear trendline,can it here turning? Thx

    1. Such commodities are difficult to trade. They drift lower for a long time with sharp short living spikes up. I see a top every three years with the current cycle something like 1 year and 9 months long. The price currently at strong support.... I would say building a base around this price level for a few months and sharp rally in 2019 to the trend line connecting the peaks.

    2. Thx Krasi,i started to buy on these levels in the last days

  5. From Spain.

    Thanks for your análisis... I follow you from various years.

    But i think usa indexes have in wave 2 of 3 of 5 of supercycle.

    I think un s&p un 5000-6000 for 2025-2027.

    At time myy friend... Dax flat wave actually with shoot 18000-21000 superated 13600 for wave 3 of 5 supercycle... And 27000-31000 for 2025-2027.


  6. Hello!!!

    I would like to start with Europe, not because it is my place of residence, but because I see the at a little more simple than in the USA indexes.

    Long-term Dax.
    I think that between 2000-2011 was formed a long-term bullish triangle, would be the Wave 4 supercycle, since it is in the waves 4 where triangles are formed.

    If I add Elliott analysis we have the triangle in Abcde... and after the triangle we have the Subwave (1) of the Wave 5 supercycle, price section 5000-12400, we have the correction Subwave 2 wave 5 supercycle 50% Fibo Section 12400-8700.

    Since then we have the sub-subwave 1 of the Wave (3) of the Wave 5 of supercycle, section 8700-13600

    Currently we have sub-Subwave 2 of Wave 3 of the supercycle Wave 5.

    Here I have to say that I totally agree with your analysis of Dax, I expect a relevant minimum medium-term in zone 11000-11500 for October-November since the average of 200 sessions in weekly currently passes by 11300 and the Quote to touch it fixed.
    Setting up, probably, a flat wave.
    This flat wave is to be inexorably treated from the correction to the entire ascent from 2016.

    Thus, it must be thought that the rises once exceeded the 13600 have to be continued.
    If I think it's the sub-subwave 1 of the Wave (3) of the supercycle Wave 5 and shot an expansive fibo since the "2 possible points) it gives that the sub-subwave 3 of the Wave (3) of the Wave 5 of supercycle would finish on the 21000 points.

    Do not forget that the final objective of the triangle would be the zone 27000-30000 points... so both objective of triangle and Fibos classics marry perfectly as you can see in the following chart.


    Dax medium term.

    Indeed, and as appreciated in the following chart and as I said, I have exactly the same opinion that Krasi.

    Would be expected a short term maximum between 13200-13600 in wave B and A very very relevant minimum on 11000-11500 towards October thus configuring a medium-term flat wave that would lead to continuous hikes for at least a year and a half, probably more, and far above 13600.


    I have No more time for now friend Krasi and Company... just thank you for your work.

    Also tell you that I and some friends traders are regulars to your site and that on many occasions our analyses are practically the same.

    But the fact is that for some months in particular I have to disagree with your analysis of long-term use indexes, as I disagree on your analysis on oil and EURUSD.

    The USA increases last year have echoed me radically change the long-term analysis, and record, until half a year ago we thought like you, but I think it can not be.

    When you have a time upload graphics and explanations of CAC (French index), the graphic will be very blunt and simple, and oil and EURUSD.

    If I think Europe is going to go up for 7-9 years I can't think that the USA is going to fall.

    Perhaps, if Trump's term lasts for 8 years it will be a success, at least in the economic and stock market (sorprendentement, Jiji!!!)

    We'll keep in touch, good trading my friends!!!

    1. I am not mega bearish just the important low should come in 2019 with 4 year cycle low. What comes after that I do not know, my trading frame is not so long... I think at least one more bull market for several years.
      I do not count triangle for the DAX but still bullish with a decade more to the upside https://imgur.com/a/Jb5jWXN

      The next secular switch between stocks and commodities should be around 2030.

  7. welcome back sold my spxs today looking for bounce

  8. Thank you for the update. Is today bouncing finished or still some room to higher?

    1. I guess we will see a turn lower after FOMC today.