Short term - we have extended fifth wave which makes the pattern look like a-b-c, but if you look at NYSE and DJ impulse lower counts better. As I wrote the pattern does not look finished so I expect one more leg lower.
Intermediate term - the both scenarios shown - X wave in red and ED in green. With the deeper retracement X looks more likely, for ED the bulls have a lot of work to do. Double zig-zag to reach the upper trend line looks more likely than big wave c 1,5-1,6 the size of a.
Long term - most likely December/January higher and waiting for the next top for more clear pattern.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - look positive to me...
McClellan Oscillator - retracing lower after very overbought level.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - moving lower....
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.
HURST CYCLES
Day 14 fro the 40 day cycle, half cycle low expected with the next low.
Week 3 for the 20 week cycle.
Thanks Krasi , at this rate you might get your B by thanksgiving , setting up a seasonal long too..
ReplyDeleteI am thinking higher by thanksgiving and then the final move lower.
DeleteSo today's down move is the B in the short term chart? But it looks very strong that it may be another impulsive wave down?? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteYes, it looks impulsive a or 1 of B.
DeleteDo you mean the whole down move from Nov 8 until today is a or 1 of B?
DeleteOps my mistake a or 1 for the second leg down of B.
DeleteKrasi how far down do you think we're going
DeleteCorrective pattern difficult to predict.... at least 2650 if it does not hold 2600.
DeleteJust wait for the end of the month.
The moves get faster & faster ... 2650/55 to hold today before your Thanksgiving bounce & then a final sell off to re-test the 2600 low next week possibly...
ReplyDeleteor maybe not ....needs to hold here or the third wave gains credibility...
ReplyDeleteThink we could have just put in a higher low from the October and we see some upside here? I just find that sentiment is entirely too bearish at this point.
DeleteThe retracement could be over. Now there is finished pattern with good Fibo measurements.... but it is too early maybe some kind of bottoming begins.
ReplyDeleteThanks Krasi , Looking for a positive NQ close today. About as far as I can look !
ReplyDeletestill not bullish reversal... then what's the possible down wave count? Another 2% to 2600? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteMy bearish count is wave 3 of c of B... 4 thanksgiving and final low next week around 2600.
Delete2690ish for the retrace?
ReplyDeleteThis will be too much - 2660-2670 if the move lower is not finished.
DeleteNow still another wave down or we can confirm reversal? Thanks.
DeleteI do not see signs for reversal, resistance held today... one more move lower will look better.
DeleteHi Krasi, it looks like Nasdaq entered a bearish pattern if you look at the daily chart.. do you think a rebound in qqq will just hit a resistance and push it further down or do you see a new high for this index?
ReplyDeleteThe most bearish is we have 5 waves lower for some ugly diagonal and at the end it is the same - higher for a few months B/X.
DeleteHi Krasi, would you mind drawing your SPX counts? Can't quite fit anything from 19th of Nov
ReplyDeleteciao krasi, come hai prevvisto, oggi un altro basso , pensi possa bastare
ReplyDeleteFor the impatient https://imgur.com/a/5zC5vzd
ReplyDeleteThanks for the update. It looks like QQQ and Nasdaq has been reversal? At least no further down? Also VIX looks like almost reached peak? Do you still think another 2% down to 2600? Thanks.
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