Jan 19, 2019

Weekly preview

I was expecting something around resistance 2620 for c=a, but we saw spikes on Thursday and Friday. Now we have c=1,23xa and for c 5=0,618(1to3) common target for the fifth wave. Every index and share I look at shows complete pattern... so I think the indexes are close to a top. I was expecting turn date around MLK day and I thought it will be a low, but now it is obvious it will be a high. Next we should see topping and at least 50% retracement, but I think it will be more like 61,8%.

The big picture a-b-c for B higher running. Last week I explained in details what I see so nothing new to add. Now all indexes joined the NDX and overlap with the previous waves... I do not know how to twist this bearish and count major top.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - some counting impulse, I think a-b-c fits better. At the end the outcome will be the same. Despite the spikes on Thursday and Friday the pattern is still valid and shows common Fibo measurements - at the same levels you have the target for wave 5 and on higher degree c=1,23xa.


Intermediate term - I expect something like in March.2018. The price should spend time below MA200 topping - lower 100 points to support, retracing more of the decline and bigger leg lower to retrace 50%-61,8% of the whole rally for b/B.
RSI very steep advance this is not sustainable and it should cool off.


Long term - wave B running for IV from 2009. Possibilities are simple zig-zag or triangle to burn time.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the oscillators very overbought so it is time for a pause.
McClellan Oscillator - very overbought with divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range .
Fear Indicator VIX - one push to 25 and lower again.
Advance-Decline Issues - very overbought with divergence.


HURST CYCLES
Day 17... a good time for a short term high and decline for mid-cycle low.


Week 4 for the 20 week cycle. Shorter cycles possible 40 week low in Dec.2018 so we will keep an eye how fast the pattern develops.


Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Sell setup completed and this time I think it will be really a sell.
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14 comments:

  1. AnonymousJan 19, 2019, 4:58:00 PM

    Thanks Krasi. Could it be that wave IV goes to 1800? In 1800 is the previous 4 subwave

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    Replies
    1. KrasiJan 19, 2019, 9:44:00 PM

      I do not think so low, but yes this is the idea. The rule is I think the area of the previous wave 4 of lower degree and this is between 2100-1800.

      Delete
  2. Steve NakamotoJan 23, 2019, 1:22:00 AM

    So if we say that Tuesday marks the beginning of the decline, where is the likely point in time for the next low? Are we talking about a 8-10 day decline that puts us around February 1 (Friday)? Just curious how much emphasis is on price and time. thanks for your great work.

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    1. KrasiJan 23, 2019, 5:50:00 AM

      I am not so good at such timing, but I would say the end of January should be low of the first leg lower and the next low should be around mid February.

      Delete
  3. AnonymousJan 24, 2019, 12:50:00 AM

    Do we have confirmed reversal or still up in the air?

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    Replies
    1. KrasiJan 24, 2019, 8:20:00 AM

      It looks like reversal to me. Confirmation is when we see close below MA10/MA50, for now the price is bouncing and finds support.

      Delete
    2. AnonymousJan 25, 2019, 12:13:00 PM

      No reversal. Triangles on US indices and H&S brakeout and backtest on DAX.

      Delete
    3. KrasiJan 25, 2019, 1:22:00 PM

      I can not see triangles, break outs and so on....

      Delete
  4. AnonymousJan 25, 2019, 10:00:00 AM

    No direction - presumably a choppy B wave and if so should resolve today/monday ...

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    1. KrasiJan 25, 2019, 1:24:00 PM

      It looks like small 2 or b, but no confirmation so far.

      Delete
  5. AnonymousJan 25, 2019, 5:48:00 PM

    break out on gold?

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    1. KrasiJan 25, 2019, 9:28:00 PM

      More like the final wave with divergences.

      Delete
  6. AnonymousJan 26, 2019, 1:11:00 AM

    Hi Krasi, for equities, could it be that 2018 had completed d entire correction - a repeat of 1997-98 where most EM market fell off the cliff while US dropped 20+%, before market continied to rally till the dot.com bubble burst? Tq

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    Replies
    1. KrasiJan 26, 2019, 4:52:00 AM

      Not my favorite scenario, but yes it is an option.
      In this case I want to see another sell off with a low below the December bottom.

      Delete

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