Sep 15, 2019

Weekly preview

The bulls do not give up, which does not change anything - another corrective rally and prolonged topping process.

The indexes are nearing the next high, but I think it will take another week or two before we see a significant decline. RUT is catching up and it looks like impulse higher is running. Watch when it is finished, most likely the indexes will turn lower at the same time.
The big picture - if we see higher high there is possible ED for c/B running.

As explained in previous posts for those who want to go short the time is in September. Personally I will enter short when I see the current short term pattern completed, then I will watch what happens - corrective move lower for possible 4/c/B or impulse and decline into intermediate term low late October/early November.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - another corrective move higher. The two possible patterns I see are w-x-y zig-zag(red) or you can count a-b-c lower for possible 2 of ED(NYSE/DJ made lower low) with a-b-c higher(white)... not the best impulse, but possible for wave c.


Intermediate term - I expect a high in September and lower in October. I think topping will begin next week and probably the indexes will squeeze higher high with possible ED for c/B.


Long term - one more decline into 2020 to finish the correction. The indexes are spending a lot of time topping so if wee see new highs and ED than a decline in five waves for C is more likely.... I hope so, I do not want to trade zig-zags.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - are resetting before the decline for the 40 week cycle in October.
McClellan Oscillator - still strong, no divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - buy signal.
Fear Indicator VIX - resetting lower, expect divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - reached overbought levels.


HURST CYCLES
Day 20 for the daily cycle, still pointing up. Some are counting the low on 26th of August, but DAX,DJI,NYSE made a low on 15-th of August... I think this should be the low. It does not matter, I am watching my triggers MA10 and RSI for a signal when the current daily cycle will turn lower.


Week 15 for the 20 week cycle, the last 1/4 of the cycle is running and we a nearing it's high.

33 comments:

  1. Do you remember the analysis of the 40 week cycle from top september 2018 to july 2019?. If july was not a top of that cycle, this 40 week cycle last 51-52 weeks so i think is more likely we dont see new highs

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  2. Too strong too close to the last high..... lower high has lower probability.

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  3. Yep, I think we get marginal new ath, like 3050, just to confuse the masses, then we start downtrend.

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    1. I have the same feeling fake break out to trap the bulls and the bears to give up... this is how it usually works.

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    2. 3047 is STILL in play (2.618 extention of 2007-2009 bear market)

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  4. Hi Krasi,

    What is your count for GBPPLN? I see second leg down to either 4.16 or ~3.6

    Thank you in advance

    Mily

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    1. I do not see clear pattern, I would not bet on impulse lower.
      Probably test of the lows around 4,55 next year.

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  5. December 2018, 4 year cycle low ?

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    1. Way too short less than 3 years for 4 year cycle.

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  6. A 20 week cycle can have 3 daily cycles or 3 10 week cycle?

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    1. No, only two. Sometimes it looks like we have three daily cycles, but they are are shorter 6-7 weeks.

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    2. And for example: if we have a 20 week cycle low, the next first daily cycle could makes lows under the 20 week cycle low?

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  7. Krasi what is your opinion on uvxy your thoughts

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    1. One more lower low probably testing the low from July and strong buy.

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  8. this friday o next monday we must see the cycles lows of 2,5 and 5 weeks

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    1. Yes, according to my cycle count it should be the middle of the daily cycle.

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  9. Now I had more time to look at the charts and looking some indexes this move from December 2018 looks like a big wedge or in EW terms ending diagonal.
    Long time ago I posted SOX charts explaining that it needs more 4-5 4-5 waves to complete III from 2009, and now it looks exactly like that with ED for 5/III - https://imgur.com/a/ziCSd4q
    If you look NDX the daily chart it looks like ED, clear zig-zags with final higher high missing to complete the pattern - https://imgur.com/a/nlmU395

    RSI with double divergence on the daily and weekly charts confirming such ED, it works for SPX and DJI, but not for NYSE.
    I was just wondering if this is ED for 5/III and not B..... even if it is, it does not change anything the next move should be lower in three waves. I am talking about a decline with a zig-zag for months because of time(cycles), but now it seems the pattern is confirming it.

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  10. so, if it's the pattern what do you think the value of NDX has to arrive to complete wave IV?

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    1. The same 38% retracement.

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    2. What is your target for ES and NQ? 2700 and 7200?

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    3. If the 4 year cycle really turns lower in a week or two it should show it's teeth so yes I want to see at least 50% retracement, which means targets 2700 and 7000.

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  11. Very interesting, it's so different from LARA Eliot wave

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  12. Bigger picture I still see this as a corrective wave B therefore end of bull market primary 5. You still see it as primary 3. Macro economic data doesnt look to support one more wave up as 5 but I could be wrong. However you still think December lows 2018 will be revisited right Krasi?? Thanks Krasi for the free blog .

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    1. Yes, Dec.2018 should be tested and probably overshot.
      It is a big mistake to mix trading with personal perception for the economy.
      Many will argue EW is useless, but look at DAX and NYSE clear corrective pattern. The message is clear after corrective pattern another wave higher follows.

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    2. Krasi your thought on uvxy? 22 then 28

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    3. 28 seems to high, I think one more low before the big up.

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    4. you mean one morwe low in uvxy then a big pop or one more low in the market and thanks

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    5. With the big bar I think higher low when the indexes are making higher higher.

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  13. Thanks for the free blog. It makes for very stimulating thought.

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