Oct 19, 2019

Weekly preview

Nothing new this week, I have the feeling the market is waiting for FOMC the end of the month. The short term and intermediate term pattern is a mess.
With this corrective waves I can show at least 4-5 different patterns. I have seen three different versions just for a triangle and I will not start with EDs:)
My feeling tells me we should see more to the upside short term to finish some kind of b wave followed by a final sell off to finish b/B.

Short term - is it still wave c or w3 and now 4(green)? Or this is part of a bigger zig-zag(yellow)?
The bulls see triangle(white) and this zig-zag is wave d... this is just one version of a triangle.
Other see ending diagonals some wave 1 other 3 or even w5....
And I have different opinion, we will see in the next 2-3 weeks who is right:)

Intermediate term - looking time, the indicators and other markets, the best fit for me is a sell off to finish corrective pattern from the July high. The size off the move will tell us if this is b/B or B is finished.

Long term - at the moment I expect a correction to be finished around mid-November. Then a rally for 3 months followed by final sell off to finish the correction which begun in 2018.

Market Breadth Indicators - I do not see signs for important low... I think we are in the middle of some pattern.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - starting to turn higher.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - starting to turn high.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - nothing interesting in the mid-range.
Fear Indicator VIX - one final low to test the long term trend line and another spike.
Advance-Decline Issues - heading higher, even if it reaches overbought levels we will see divergence.

Day 45 for the daily cycle(80 day Hurst cycle).

Week 20... if the 40 week low was not in August, expect sharp sell off for 2-3 weeks.


  1. Thank you so much for your analysis work!
    short term has three different way.wow~it's very difficult to handle them for my position. I holding 3×short position(SPXS)(SOXS)
    therefore expecting your view next week every day.you can analysis the market go which way(green/yellow/white)
    thanks for your great work.

  2. I think 28th August was a daily cycle low of 61 weeks, look RUT it makes lows that day. Now it could be 36 weeks of the new daily cycle

    1. I mean 61 days and 36 days, not weeks

    2. Yes, some count it from this low. DAX,DJ,NYSE made a low on 15th of August... I do not know why RUT should be more important. There should be another criteria.
      At the end it does not matter.

  3. What do you think of eur-usd ?

    1. I think USD will move higher. I know every EW guy is very bearish on USD counting some ED my forecast is based on cycles.
      If I am right ugly correction some kind of combination was finished in June and we are seeing 1-2 with 3 from C higher to follow.
      So when the current leg lower() is finished we should see strong move higher for confirmation.
      If it is a weak bounce and turns lower I am wrong.

      P.S I am watching USD chart and all this higher lower are inverted to EUR/USD chart.

  4. target for q1 2020 around 1.00, 1.05 ?

  5. SPX will be reach how high on OCT.~NOV.

  6. Oh~ I really appreciate your analysis .you're so kind so good!

  7. Possible reach to 3022-3028 in this month? Thank you!

  8. hoping to see drop down the important support, do you think when will be coming?

  9. I see this pattern - https://imgur.com/a/qOWLEdE
    It works for all indexes - European, emerging markets,RUT/DJT and fits very well with cycles and market breadth. That is why this is the most likely pattern for me.
    The only question now is if this X was finished in September and the final sell off has begun or we will see one more high to finish impulse for wave c of a much bigger X.

  10. And after C we start wave 3 of 5?
    What about 2200-2300

  11. I see,you mean it probably will be two way. If go more higher (X) may be Ttarget near around 3050~or more.
    if finish (X) will go bigger drop down.
    is that right?

  12. Thank you so much for your analysis work.you such a good man and great!

  13. http://jaywiz.blogspot.com/search?updated-max=2019-09-05T10:46:00-07:00&m=0

    Do you think this blog's analysis is good?

    1. Awful page I could not see any information or analysis.

  14. Hurst cycles top to top: From october 2018 to july 2019 40 week cycle.
    The next top around 3050 in november 20 week cycle and the next top in february-march 2020 40 week cycle
    Is it right?

    1. Yes, I did not pay much attention to the top-to-top cycles, but they look really interesting. In fact they confirm my expectation for more to the upside.
      I see 4 year cycle from mid-2015 to Q1.2020. The second 18 month cycle was finished in September 2018 and now the third one is running. Most likely July 2019 was 40 week cycle high.

  15. But if we expect a 9 year cycle low in 2024, this does not fit with the next 4 year cycle top to top

    1. No, between two 4 year cycle lows you must have one 4 year cycle high.
      Between the 4 year cycle low 2020 and the next one 2024 you need one 4 year cycle high.
      You can argue if this high will be in 2022-2023-2024, but you must have one 4 year cycle high.