May 2, 2020

Weekly preview

Fake rally into FOMC and red close for the week, but enough to mess up the pattern. On Internet I see two camps either finished impulse up or corrective move wxyxz. Those with something else are minority.
We have right translated cycle so the next one should make higher high. Market breadth needs time - it it just starting to show weakness not to mention topping/divergences. That is why I am looking for a pattern with one more high. The problem it is a guess at the moment.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - a few guesses which are not very different just the labeling. As long as the price stays above 2805 there is a chance for an ED(a-b-c) the other options are wxy or wxyxz.
Some are counting impulse wave 1 or A... it does not feel right for me. Below 2730 and I am wrong, maybe thi time the majority will be right:).


Intermediate term - 62% retracement and resistance(highs from 2018 and 2019) reached, now pullback is running. As long as it stays above the 50% retracement level a-b-c with ED looks good. As long as it stays above MA50 wxy(xz) is ok. Below this levels and something else is going on.


Long term - another 2-3 weeks higher will look good for RSI to reach the trend line and the histogram to reach zero or slightly above it.
Nothing new - resistance/MA50/62% is tested after that we should see a leg lower to complete the pattern.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - some weakness, but no strong sell signal.
McClellan Oscillator - divergence and heading lower.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - divergence and turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - reached the 75 level and turned lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - elevated levels, we should see one more decline for the indexes and VIX with divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - broke the trend line, but still lower highs.


HURST CYCLES
Daily(trading) cycle - the signals are that this cycle is heading lower into cycle low - break below the trend line, the price below MA10, the RSI below MA18. At day 28 we have right translated cycle so the next one should make higher high.
The signal is sell, but with right translated cycle it is expected to last only a few days.


Hurst cycles - expecting 40day cycle low and final high for the 20w cycle.


Week 13 for the 20w cycle. Expecting a high for the 20w cycle and final sell off.

56 comments:

  1. Do you know about neowaves or Glen Nelly? He believes we are at a major top and will be going down over the next few years in an expanding triangle pattern.

    I think it is possible we had a major top and will be going down as well over the next few years and are in a bear market. Look at NYA that shows we broke 2017 lows. That doesn't fit well with a 4th wave correction from the 09 lows.

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    1. Yes, I use his book as a reference. I do not believe in expanding triangles. We will see a few years lower, but first higher high next year at least NDX/SP500.

      I will not be surprised if we had a major top in 2018 right on schedule 2000-2018. I was explaining this to the cycle guys where the pattern is completed of course they did not listen.
      I think I have posted a RUT chart with the move from 2009 completed(NYSE is in this category). So yes, it is possible that the bear market is already running and I am aware of that, but my focus is trading. I am convinced we will see another rally higher and after that I will think about the theory and EW labels.

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  2. Can you upload a chart with this count?

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  3. Hello Krasi,what is your target for Tesla for the final sell off in the coming weeks?

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  4. hi Krasi - Why not an A? Is there any particular technical reason? or it just doesn't look right? I was thinking B next could be a frustrating triangle before a smallish C up. IWM still has lots of room to run upwards.

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    1. In this case B and C should be really small... not very proportional.
      I do not think so much about labels at the moment. The other tools are telling one more high so I am following the signal and label later.

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  5. Krasi.

    Te recomiendo analisisbolsa.com

    Está semana dj, s&p, y dax han llegado a RRS... Resistencias.

    No creo que haya más altos de corto plazo.

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    1. The page looks interesting by my Spanish is weak:)
      Short term is lower, the question is what happens in a week. Cycles and market breadth are showing too much strength to suggest this is the top.

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  6. Krasi.

    Los RRS y SRS funcionan muy bien... Son soportes y resistencias en diario.

    Los rrs y srs en minúscula son soportes y resistencias horarias... Para intradia.

    Imaginaba lo del idioma... :)

    Ese analista es de lo mejor de España y probablemente del mundo... Te lo aseguro.
    En ocasiones también hace recuentos de Elliott.

    Un saludo.

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    1. Are this pivot points or something he has developed?

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  7. Son soportes y resistencias, pero no son las habituales.

    Es un método que ha desarrollado el... Además de otras cosas... "Bonitas", LTRS

    Los análisis en la web son a diario, normalmente dax, nasdaq y s&p.

    Haz un seguimiento de la web, verás lo bien que funcionan.

    Espero que con un traductor tipo Google traductor puedas leer sus artículos... Te sorprenderán.

    Yo me puse corto en dax en 11000-11300.
    Y como muchos espero una vuelta a mínimos para acabar tu ciclo de tiempo.

    Recuerdo que un SR (soporte) en dax estaba en 8000+- lugar donde cayó... Buen punto de compra.

    Te recomendaría su libro, pero el idioma va a ser un problema... Es en español.

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    1. Usted dijo que se puso corto en dax en 11000-11300, cuales son los correspondentes numeros para el s&p?
      Gracias

      Delete
  8. Si te interesa Krasi, tienes un nuevo informe en analisisbolsa.com

    Recordad, resistencias y soportes importantes RRS y SRS (en mayúsculas).
    Roturas de resistencias y soportes en cierres diarios de sesión de contado (no cfds ni futuros).

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  9. Personalmente, me gustaría ver al s&p en 2030+-.

    Tal vez ahí sería un buen punto de compra...

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  10. NDX futures - https://invst.ly/qo80b
    SP500 has the same structure, but not so clear.
    We have 7 waves which is corrective move - two legs lower with the same size, X wave, another two legs lower with the same size. The reaction higher is the biggest so far in time and price and I do not think it is part of the decline like w4.

    With very high probability we have corrective structure. This does not mean the decline is over, but the odds are low that we have reversal and the next big sell off. Yes, we should see corrective wave Y , but at least on such short term frame 1h chart I want to see impulse.

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    1. Krasi ,
      Thank you for your chart using invst.
      I am following you and trying to learn.

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  11. Any change in your thoughts about gold going to $1400 in the next few weeks?

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    1. Nothing new, in the next weeks PM and stock will complete the move up and we will see another sell off.

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    2. Yesterday 40 days cycle low?

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    3. I do not see completed pattern, the indicators does not signal a low either.

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  12. When the stock start the final leg lower? and for how long?

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  13. It will start the 28-05-2020 18:42:31 and will last to 26-06-2020 20:14:12, just kidding :)

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  14. You're not kidding at all, you know your cycles

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  15. Maybe this is going on - https://invst.ly/qp2jf
    I do not see a reversal. This is what the other tools(cycles,TA) warned us - to look for a pattern pointing still higher:)

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    1. Krasi,
      Thank you for your updated chart.

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    2. Agree with this, Not much is taking the market down. The mentality is to be a contrarian - bull. If a nuclear war happened tomorrow, we'd probably rally past 3k

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    3. agreed with price action and volumes, but bro is that you Krasi throwing in the towel? No re-test of lows?
      Or are you saying 3108 before reversal in your updated chart, that i agree.
      May looks choppy, but green.

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    4. Nothing changed - I was expecting lower for 40d low,one more high and down to test the lows. The second 20d cycle is playing out as sideways pattern so this "lower" is not well visible, but this is not changing neither time nor pattern.

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    5. Could we be starting a triangle? https://invst.ly/qpaly

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    6. It looks too long in time...

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    7. that's why I like it :). How frustrating it will be if true!

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    8. Or maybe this z wave as a triangle NDX - https://invst.ly/qpmxa

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  16. Sería interesante que en el gráfico de hurst se vieran fechas en las ondas sinuosidades.

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    1. There is no such option. It is more for a better visual of the short cycles... unfortunately it is not working as a prediction for exact dates.

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  17. What day do you expect the cycle low of 40 days ?

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    1. I can not make such forecasts... I would say another 3-5 days.

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  18. And after this low, 2-3 weeks going up before the big sell off?

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    1. Max 2 weeks more will be too much. The pattern is not clear surprises are possible like this - https://invst.ly/qpmxa

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  19. The problem is the VIX in the weekly chart, the macd looks doun

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    1. vix made daily bull divergence today

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    2. There is something called divergence. For weeks writing for important low I want to see VIX divergence.

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  20. 1 hour SP500 futures - https://invst.ly/qq62r
    One more high will look great to complete second impulse with the same size for a zig-zag.
    This is the zig-zag which I have shown a few days ago - https://invst.ly/qp2jf.
    Is it part of a triangle or something else we will know next week.

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  21. Just wondering, are you long or short or out of the market?

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    1. Short the Dax today and small short from around 2820.

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    2. Hi Krasi, Your SPX chart shows further upward movement. Dax is above MA10 again. So why short today? If I have to guess, the only thing I notice is on 4hr, the RSI trend line was broken a few days ago and now it is back up to test the trend line and it is possible that it won't be able to break it.

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    3. Speculating on completed zig-zag and another leg lower for a few days.
      MA10 is for a bigger moves and now with this sideways move is not helpful.

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    4. Thanks for the explaination

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  22. It goes up too much, the 5 week low has already been this week or the previous one

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    1. Maybe, maybe not.... it is just a guess at the moment.

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