Jun 6, 2020

Weekly preview

The pattern was not completed, which was obvious and now we have it with explosion. There is possible completed pattern so waiting for confirmation or not next week. Its taking so long because with very high probability we have 20 week low in March - my mistake. Not that I was not expecting two legs higher and this second leg, the daily cycle showed it clearly, just from the beginning we would had known that it will take longer and higher.

We have two legs higher with shallow and long middle section exactly the same like 2019/2020... some has not learned and counting impulse again.
EW pattern - X wave in 2019, corrective leg lower, corrective leg higher above 62% expect impulse lower to complete flat pattern. I though after X wave from all three corrective patterns flat is the least probable because it is crazy after what happened in March, but it is playing out.
Cycles - 20 week low in March and now final 20 week cycle running with expected low in July to complete at least 4y cycle.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - we can discuss for hours and I have to explain pages and discuss many indexes and futures.... instead lets not distract and keep it simple. IMHO the fact itself that we have to discuss if it is an impulse or not means with very high probability it is not. Impulses are just there and they do not need to be justified.
I see an a-b-c with possible finished c or waves 4-5/c to complete it. I can make the case for both scenarios - again focus on trading, which means patience, which means we wait for the price action on Monday for more information. If I start with trading it will be again long story - I will make it short wait for confirmation.... or some will not understand and call me again full of shit:)


Intermediate term - we discussed before the jump on Friday that it is most likely a flat, now I do not see other pattern fitting. It feels like exhaustion gap... we will see on Monday. Now the time is getting ripe for the gaps to the downside to be closed.


Long term - the leg up almost completed, next final sell off will finish the whole correction which begun in 2018.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - is strong with some divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - overbought, divergence with the previous high.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal at overbought level for a while.
Bullish Percentage - overbought, divergence with the previous high.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - strong.
Fear Indicator VIX - made lower low, but still elevated levels. I expect one more rally.
Advance-Decline Issues - overbought.


HURST CYCLES
Daily(trading) cycle - the signal is buy. The price is too far from MA10 next should be this interaction with the moving average.


Hurst cycles day - I guess 20 day low on a pullback or just lower for 40 day cycle low. The lower sine wave probably will need to be adjusted what is coming should have different dynamics from the prior move up.


Week 11 for the 20 week cycle. I have switched to the alternate scenario 20 week low in March. Now the final one is running which should be shorter than the average because the previous one was longer than the average. We had already shorter 10w cycle lasting less than 8 weeks. I guess the length of the 20w cycle should be somewhere between 16-18 weeks. The 20 week cycle high seems to arrive on schedule with the proper price action.

182 comments:

  1. RUT is one index, which shows clearly that there is no impulse wave two is missing - look at the cash index it is just not there. The futures are showing clear two legs higher, they count very well as impulses and overall a-b-c - https://invst.ly/r1buq

    This support the bearish case.... well we will see on Monday. Who knows it could develop as an impulse with extended first wave:)

    ReplyDelete
  2. What do you think about calling this entire move an expanding diagonal either leading or ending starting from January high, best seen on RUT or NYA?

    Thank you

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It does not look likely. I am not a big fan of this patterns very rare.
      I count is a double zig-zag lower.

      Delete
  3. For monday, are you looking for a down day? Or for it to below a certain level?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. For reversal I want to see gap lower 20-30 points and completing impulse.
      If it is just something lower expect one more high with divergences.

      Delete
  4. Thank you for analysis and your work,and don't blame on that stupid people that talk in so bad Wat, they are only losers.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Many did not understand or accept how analysis work and how to use them to trade.
      If it go higher than the initial target is such a big failure you have to nail it from the beginning.

      Delete
  5. Also a question regarding gaps, someone wrote “all gaps eventually are filled”

    Is there a time frame for gaps to be filled OR it doesnt matter as long as they are filled at some point?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. For me it is just a saying. Usually I do not pay much attention to them. Just in the current situation fits perfect with the expected pattern.

      Delete
  6. Wave Up, another wave up.???

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Until it is confirmed it is always possible. This is how analysis works.
      If you can find some one which can always nail ok 70% or the time the top/bottom I will sign up right away.

      Delete
  7. Wondering for a long time about the EUR/USD pattern... it seems the same like the indexes W-X-Y(flat) - https://invst.ly/r1d8k
    Depends on where you count the end of the triangle like the indexes one more high or not.

    P.S. for those with the stupid comments the important information is not if there is one more high or not. The important information is sell off is coming then big up. If you can not grasp what is important for trading maybe you should quit trading.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 10y yield looks very similar. Any thoughts on it?

      Delete
    2. Good day, Krasi! Very well said. My analysis shows same probabilities for EURUSD roadmap. On the move up USD index to reach about 106 level. From there LT top for USD.

      Delete
    3. All the markets are moving in tandem. I have shown the USD because it is leading the parade.
      Another wave of fear is coming - the same trades like March USD higher, bond higher, yield lower, commodities lower, stocks lower.

      Delete
  8. For those who cannot grasp Krasi's work, look back at Q4 2015. Nasdaq also made a higher high back then. The rip that we're seeing then is similar to what we're seeing now.
    Drops of the magnitude that we saw in March typically gets retested. The only exception I see is in early 2019. If you're long, be very careful.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Krasi the only thing I don't agree with you is the timing of July for the 4Y low. Based on the strength of this move, and the timing band for bonds I think we'll likely see another high in SPX on the next 20day high with divergence before we resume downwards. I don't think we have enough time to get it done by July.

      Delete
    2. This is one of the options a day or two lower for 20day low and the next one making higher high and failing as left translated - do not expect to move higher for weeks.
      The move lower will be quick like 5-6 weeks do not expect calm and orderly decline.

      Delete
    3. "... look back at Q$ 2015. Nasdaq also made a higher high back then." Only if you are referring to QQQ (etf) or futures(?). $COMPQ (index) did not make higher high in Q4 - 5231.94 (July 2015) vs. 5176.77 (December 2015). But I agree, the similarities on the longer-term charts (weekly/monthly) are palpable. And if there is a "Rule of Alternation", then maybe no V-bottom this time versus Q4 of 2018? Only time will tell ...

      Delete
  9. thanks Krasi - also looks at weekly rsi divergence on NDX!

    ReplyDelete
  10. Si, y su trabajo del año pasado.

    Todas las semanas iba a caer, todas las semanas faltaba uno onda al alza.

    Desde que iba a caer subió un 30% más.

    Y ahora, debería caer entre 35-40 sesiones, si cayera ya.
    Ya no es mediados de junio, sería principio de agosto para un mínimo.

    Desde que iba a caer ahora ya llevamos un 10% y mes y medio de error, y muchas ondas arriba, semana tras semana.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Wave Up, wake Up, make Up, not down flow Up, Up Up.

    Waves Up forever!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can choose to learn or continue to be part of the sheeple - it is your choice.

      Delete
  12. eur/usd has rebounded from the monthly trend line that comes from the year 2000, It is possible that the low of the other day is very relevant because if it makes another low at 1.04 it will break that important trend line

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This is the pattern, it will not last spread in two months - it could easily break below the trend line and reverse so that the monthly candle close above the trend line.

      Delete
  13. maybe a pullback to the weekly broken trend line in the RSI, so a last rise in the sp for that the rsi touch the trend line

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This will take weeks and I think either we have the top or small down up for divergence on the daily.

      Delete
  14. Hi Krasi,also the pattern of Oil is completed or not? Could close the gap to 41 or for now it is time for the retracement?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Digging into the 1h chart - for a perfect completed impulse drop to 38,40 and up to 40.40 or 40.70

      Delete
  15. Krasinski now so many calling for 3500 to 3600

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I have stopped caring what the others are calling, especially after the last two years.
      I saw that even the majority of the "experts" have no clue what they are talking about.
      All the same markets - everything is aligned and stocks are not something special in their own universe. The experts can continue watching NDX/SP500 and all that "strength" and I will continue to watch the pattern and time paying attention what the other markets are doing.

      Delete
  16. Si, y su trabajo del año pasado.

    Todas las semanas iba a caer, todas las semanas faltaba una onda al alza.

    Desde que iba a caer subió un 30% más.

    Y ahora, debería caer entre 35-40 sesiones, si cayera ya.
    Ya no es mediados de junio, sería principio de agosto para un mínimo.

    Desde que iba a caer ahora ya llevamos un 10% y mes y medio de error, y muchas ondas arriba, semana tras semana.

    Respuesta

    Anónimo6 de junio de 2020, 4:23:00 p.m.
    Agita, despierta, maquilla, no baja, sube, sube.

    ¡Ondas para siempre!

    ReplyDelete
  17. Crude is 4 of C?, what is the target for the 5?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. See above discussed, most likely one more high.

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  18. everyone is bullish on Twitter lol...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We will see that when the markets plunge:)

      Delete
  19. "Blue skies, smiling at me, nothing but blue skies, do I see .... blue days, all of them gone, nothing but blue skies, from now on."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Great news the trolls appeared again right on time - I can always rely on them.

      Delete
    2. Does your statement imply that I am a acting as a troll, Krasi? The song / song lyrics I posted above are a nod to the 'States in the Roaring 1920's, when everyone thought the stock market grew to the sky, like trees (which don't). The Crash of '29 ended that fervor toot sweet. Anyway, since that time, we "bears" here in the 'States bring that popular song/lyrics out when stock frenzies reoccur from time to time, just as a reminder/warning/joke.

      Delete
    3. No, just confirming the trolls are here again and blue skies... no limits everything is great.

      Delete
    4. Thanks for your confirmation. I try to always adhere to respecting all opinions on your blog, though I have gotten a little irritated by you getting constantly badgered to name the day/hour/minute/second at which to make trends, and make predictions. Thanks for providing the blog for all things TA.

      Delete
    5. Type above: "... at which to make TRADES, and make predictions."

      Delete
  20. Updated the first chart with trend lines and Fibo measurements for better visual perspective.
    For reversal impulsive move below 3120 is needed. If it is just a zig-zag it is wave iv yellow and the target is around 3270 where we have two Fibo measurements and the last gap from February.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Any thoughts on bitcoin? Im surprised it hit $10k.. has been in the 8-9k steadily

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not really I do not have analysis, I do not follow it. Just a quick look it looks like 4y cycle high late 2017 and 4y cycle low late 2018.
      The next 4y cycle high to high is already 2.5y old which is not so bullish. Some corrective pattern is running - not sure what it is.
      It is easy to follow cycles which are pretty consistent - example Jun.2019 was the next 18m high, the end of 2020 is the next one.
      I think it will follow all the other markets and decline June/July for 18 month cycle low.

      Delete
    2. Thanks krasi.. ive noticed similar, as market & optimism been going up so had BTC

      Delete
  22. Hi Krasi, now that you think that the March low was a 20 week low next is you may accept the possibility that the March low was a 40 week low.. probably in 1-2 months you will. Thank you for all your work.
    JP

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I will accept that it is 40w low when it continue for another 2-3 weeks higher.

      Delete
  23. Still expecting important 40 week low to be around election time late October / early November. Time will tell.
    JP

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Read carefully what I wrote above - SPX/NDX does not move in vacuum for them self.
      There is other indices and markets and there is something called pattern. Everything is aligned.
      In a few weeks when you are proven wrong you can start learning.

      Delete
    2. I disagree but we will see. Expecting 20 week low in late June / early July (should have a sizeable decline into this timeframe but no new lows) followed by higher highs than here into August before we crash into election time. Time will tell.
      JP

      Delete
  24. About crude I meant the target for the next move down

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  25. I agree with your analysis except for the 20w high, for me it was in February, so 2-3 weeks highest could be logical

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Many indices made lower high in February examples NYSE/RUT/EEM - I am getting tired to explain it NDX/SP500 is NOT the market it is distorted version because of 5 big tech. Their strength will NOT save the market.
      If you project further in time it does not make much sense - example the current daily cycle will be right translated again which means the next one making higher high again and from 3 you get 6-8 weeks higher.

      Delete
  26. Krasi, what do you think of this count?

    http://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2020/06/trillions.html?m=1

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I thought your message was sent by Krasi, excuse me

      Delete
    2. Yes and no - I will not be surprised if the bull market is over and I am watching A-B too, but not the one shown on his chart. I thinks his version is out of sync with cycles and it is way too fast.
      I think A is not complete and B will take much longer - I expect important low and the price should move higher for 2 years to form B.

      At least he is from the few which get it - moves with such size and speed are corrective not trending.

      Delete
  27. More importantly, what do you think? Is that count possible? He seems to think everyone else is incorrect

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  28. Uso uco should be a monster short in my opinion

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. All markets look the same crude oil is not any different....

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  29. we must see this week or the next one the cycle low of 5 weeks

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  30. Are you targeting 2100 in the S&P as the low as in your charts above or will the range be defined later? Thank you for all your good work and effort.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This is the idea and in the next 2-3 weeks we will know if it is right or not. Then we ca measure something to the downside.

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    2. I have my doubts that 2100 will be reached

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    3. Louis, where do you think the market will go? Thanks!

      Delete
  31. I'm looking for gaps to be filled to down side any were from 2900 to 2500 down into July 10

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What ever the market gives us:) there is another possible target higher low around 2300 maybe this gap will be filled who knows:)

      Delete
  32. like krasi said we will know more
    I have been shorting Penn from
    38 and accumulating uvxy near bottom

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  33. Louis there is a gap 2300-2400

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I know I just find it hard to believe right now I wish that happens though I have uvxy

      Delete
    2. The markets move a lot on emotion, so "overshoots", "throw overs", etc. can occur on both impulses and reactions. Could a retest of the March '20 "bottom" scare some of those out of their position who are singing "Blue Skies" right now?

      Delete
  34. just out of curiousity, whats everyone doing here? Going long, shorting, or holding?

    Personally im a bit confused.. past few weeks have been selling ALL of my winners, so i missed out on last couple of days of gains.. letting my losers ride, they are all coming back... hilding into about 50% cash.. trying to be patient & not emotional right now... good test of will power..

    ReplyDelete
  35. These types of irregular tops means its manipulated and is gonna end bad big drop coming in mh opinion

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Def.. someone “big” is pushing it up... scary ..

      Hope smart investors dont get too greedy..

      Delete
  36. as the troll of days ago would say Up up up waves up forever :)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I am listening this on every top since Jan.2018 this is the fourth time and sheeple learned nothing and every time ends the same way.

      Delete
  37. This is insane buying...unbelievable. with this rate we will hit all time high by end of the month

    ReplyDelete
  38. Krasi, do you see in your waves that we may hit ATH before see any pullback let alone deep pullback or going back to March low.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This second leg is impulse, corrective decline 100 points and test of the high.

      Delete
  39. Hello Krasi,i ask you a comment on Tesla: now at 949$ do you think is it the top and the beginning of the downside or another up?

    ReplyDelete
  40. "During the last five trading days, volume in put options has lagged volume in call options by 57.46% as investors make bullish bets in their portfolios. This is among the lowest levels of put buying seen during the last two years, indicating extreme greed on the part of investors."

    ReplyDelete
  41. The waves Up man.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, with one small detail it is corrective zig-zag.
      Those who think this speed size and shape of the move is bullish are just clueless and will be left holding the bag again.... I do not know how many times in the last two years.
      Best case this is part of ED and minimum half of the profits are behind us if not more.

      Delete
  42. 50% rally in just over two months must be the fastest ever . I always thought a C wave would be have more ferocity than the A wave & if so , it implies a 1000+ point decline in 20 or so trading days.

    Can understand why the sceptics don't see that coming .

    Maybe the March low was the C wave of a double three and this is just finishing off the X wave , before a double bottom or higher low.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sometimes wave A is the stronger one, lower high around 2350 will do the job too...
      If I am wrong it is worse for the bulls - than it is multi year topping process another B or X... I do not know what they are cheering:) my scenario is the most bullish one:)

      I think the majority still do not get it that big and fast move is not the same like sustainable trend move. What we are seeing is bad not great, great only for speculators....

      Delete
    2. Krasi, above (11:14:00) you refer to a "... lower high around 2350 will do the job ...". Could you have meant "higher low around 2350" instead? Thanks.

      Delete
  43. Krasi nyad cummulative has made new ath, whenever this has happened the sp has also made new highs, what do you think?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think the pattern is completing and correction for several weeks will follow.

      Delete
  44. Hi Krasi,
    Can you post a long term chart (3 year chart forecast) for S and P
    Thank you

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In a three years graphic go one wave Up. :)

      Delete
    2. The herd is delusional again.... the stupidity is really infinite.

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    3. It is useless too many corrective waves, impossible to predict the path.

      Delete
  45. 100 comments by Tuesday! Krasi on CNBC next week for the top call :)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The business networks (Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance) had talking heads falling all over themselves on NASDAQ hitting ATH, and SPX close. Yet nine out of eleven sectors DOWN, and big AAPL gain making up a huge part of move today.

      Delete
    2. they always are that way..

      Delete
    3. We are in euphoria land again extrapolating indefinitely into the future.
      The reality another corrective move, size speed and shape have nothing to do with sustainable trend or the bull market resuming.
      Best case is what I am showing - a correction will be completed lasting two years. If I am wrong it is just multi year topping process. So the bulls should be careful what they wish for, better pray that I am right about the pattern.

      Delete
    4. TV has to entertain the masses, they just give them what they want to hear - euphoria,adrenaline,casino(buying everything filing for bankruptcy) - yeah baby,yeah:)))) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=00w1HGqyxTM.

      When the retail investors are the "smartest guys" it is a sure sign of a top - it is never different it is always the same greed and stupidity.

      https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/everywhere-you-look-under-surging-stocks-is-fervid-retail-buying

      Example of smart retail investors:
      Robin Hood investors who heard about something called FANG stocks and instead of buying the 4 tech megacaps... ended up buying worthless Chinese real estate company FANGDD (ticker DUO), sending its stock price from $10 to $130 in four hours

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    5. and now buying bankruptcy companies too..

      Delete
  46. Currently watching this- https://invst.ly/r2u1m
    It works for both futures and cash index. The diagonal was spotted from Elliott_Trader and now all this mess in the middle of the move makes sense.
    Wave 4/c should be running, with one more up for 5/c the last gap will be closed, 90% retracement for flat will be hit and probably we will see small RSI divergence on the daily chart.

    If w4 plays out I will put a stop at break even - if it wants to go lower ok if not I will short at higher level.

    ReplyDelete
  47. 4 of C for the 5 weeks low? And 5 of C of (B) for the 20 weeks high?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. More likely the first decline for 5w low.

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    2. Do you mean 1 of C around 2800 for 5w low?

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    3. What ever decline we see next week. If it is to 2800 than it is 1/C/Y.

      Delete
    4. It could also be 4 of c of B, look at the dax, it seems clear that it is 4 now, target for the 5 13200, sp 3300

      Delete
    5. This is now w4 should be completed not next weeks so it is the same sequence of moves.

      Delete
  48. I dont know how to translate "completed not next weeks", what do you mean?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 4/c/B is now and it should be completed so the US and EU indices are in sync.
      What ever decline we see next week will be something else.

      Delete
  49. Krasi, what about the Nasdaq, it's the same EW?
    We see all time high

    ReplyDelete
  50. Krasi 157 million shares short on svxy Krazy stuff what would be a good target on uvxy still 70

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 70 looks good and if we see a lower low even higher.

      Delete
  51. Look what happened, up, up, involving of the fed

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  52. I think we topped on Monday. I don't think we make a lower low. The lowest we go is 2330 imo.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Can you explain your reasoning instead of making definitive statements?

      Delete
    2. I will try - too many sectors with reversal candle formation and big fat red candle closing at the low. This is not wave 4 any more this is a top.

      2330 - I have this theory that Jan.2020 was the top not February. Wave a as a combo - expanded flat, small x and zig-zag. In this case the current rally just hit 90% retracement for b wave from big flat correction Y and around 2330 SP500 will hit support(Dec.2018) and this wave Y=1,618xW

      Visual looks like this - https://invst.ly/r3asy

      Delete
    3. Good morning Krasi, Everyone,
      Thank you for update. Would like to mention that my work rhymes with what Krasi is showing. Short term as per first chart. One observation to add - $NYMO close above 90 on recent top. In at least 90% cases after such set up market makes new high. On a day $NYSE made a high with NYSI over 90 - we did not rewrite that high so far. So if market makes new high with $NYMO divergence (and other divergences), this will be good indication of a top soon.
      Let's see also if oil has already reversed or we shall see one more high as well.

      Delete
    4. Thanks Krasi and Alex.

      Delete
  53. Upper weekly BB on qqq is around 255, quite possible I think still

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Only if tech stocks move on their own. I think majority of sectors reversed already.

      Delete
  54. Replies
    1. Too big, only if it is from the March low....

      Delete
  55. Now the fast stochastic in daily is going out of overbought, this means that the "bonita de estocasticos" is finished, it is a first sign of shorts, but we have to wait for the confirmation at the end of the cash session

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  56. Sold uvxy 35.60 looking to buy back

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. louis,
      why did you sell uvxy? do you think it's time to take profits?
      I'm holding on till $70

      Cheers

      Delete
    2. I am a trader I will get back in
      If I have the opportunity

      Delete
  57. Hi Krasi, what would you consider as a confirmation for reversal? Looks like these are likely today -
    - Close below MA10
    - Breakdown from the wedge

    Would you wait for breakdown from 200DMA to add to the short or would you add today itself assuming it is a reversal based on timing of the reversal (i.e. aligning with the timing of the cycles)?

    Or would you add on the next higher low (lets say, gap closes around 3181 and there are signs of reversal)?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The signal is close below MA10. Today we saw gap below it and the wedge was broken at the same time - usually, when you see this... it is down, short is triggered.

      Confirmation for trend reversal is impulse lower. For example in April/May we know the cycle is down, but bullish and EW confirms it with corrective moves so you avoid to trade short unless for a few days.

      Now it is too far from MA10 and close to MA200/MA50, it looks like 1-2-3 waiting for 4-5 and 40d cycle low then the bounce higher probably testing MA10 and if it is corrective this is another entry point.

      Entry points - speculative for those who can count EW at completed pattern, like now gap below MA10, close below M10(currently waiting huge move), finished impulse and corrective retracement, every 6-8 days there is 10d low.

      Delete
  58. This is not a flat, it's a WXY combo correction. The W started on January and ended at end of February The entire move from march till Monday was the X wave, the X wave is an expanded flat or another combo correction. If you count it that way, the X wave only retraced 61.8% appx. of the W wave, so not a flat.

    Right now we are in the Y move. The Y move is unlikely to be a 5 wave impulse down, it's most likely to be a zigzag. I think we bounce at 2750-2800 for the A move, then go up for the B wave for nobody knows how long or high, then come down in a C wave that may go to new lows.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can also call it a double zigzag

      Delete
    2. One step back what is 2019 - B, X or finished impulse?
      I am counting X and after X there is no w-x-y, there is another corrective pattern.

      Delete
    3. 2019 was X wave, after the X is Y which can be wxy. It doesn't have to be a simple abc correction but can be a complex wxy.

      Delete
    4. This is wrong - w or y is one corrective pattern zig-zag/flat/triangle, w or y is not a combo.

      Delete
  59. Nice island reversal patterns on all stock indexes. Where are all the "Blue Skies" choir members?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MJUuDoRZpyU

      Delete
    2. Good one, Roberto. I was not familiar with the song or video, but it is spot on. The "Buy EVERY Dip" lemmings are leaping over the cliff. Should be an interesting trading day tomorrow to end the week.

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  60. No market mania? Tesla stock price now makes the company the most "valuable" auto company in the world - more than GM, Ford, Toyota, etc. Yeah, right.

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  61. Krasi, would you mind looking at nat gas? It mas monthly and weekly bullish divergence on RSI - what do you think of it? thank you

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    1. One more sell off is needed. Since the low in March it is huge mess. I do not know how this could be reversal.

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  62. Krasi, with the great call again.. sticking to his guns, and not the doubters... i mean haters..

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    1. There are not exactly haters... easy money is like drug causing euphoria and happiness and in the last two years I am spoiling the party with my corrective waves:) It is defensive reflex, simple trading psychology.

      Maybe the tools are not always right(rather I read them wrong), but I know they will always beat emotions. So it is better to put emotions aside instead being the bag holder.

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  63. in general would RTY/IWM be better to short? if they have the most companies which will go bankrupt? down almost 8% today...

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    Replies
    1. It is always a good idea to short the weakest index/stock and go long the strongest.
      This three months are good example - a guy trying to trade long banks... why?!?!? the strongest stocks are tech stocks.

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    2. BTW Roberto, in reference to your question on NAT GAS above, have you looked at USO as well? It is setting up for a sweet bullish divergence/reversal on the weekly chart, with price falling near/below 16.88, with higher lows printed on indicators (ROC, Stoch, RSI, MAC, etc.). Timing would probably also coincide with Krasi's bottom completion for other indices.

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  64. Krasi, todays move enough to add to your short?

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  65. I dont see impulse, do you have a chart?

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    Replies
    1. The fifth wave is still missing - https://invst.ly/r3y1-

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    2. what are the waves 1 and 2?

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    3. I think it is pretty obvious 9-th of June.

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  66. yes but the wave 3 is too big for this 1

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    1. I do not understand why it should be too big.

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    2. it is more of the 4,23%

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    3. I do not think this is a problem.

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  67. Krasi uvxy did well how far down before 70 maybe 35?

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  68. it is not w4. I think the move down of yesterday was 2 of ED.

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  69. Hi Krasi,

    Good to see you are still very active!

    I jus wanted to get your opinion on your view about the current trade. I am currently short SPY with the break at 10 dma. I added to my position with the current retracement. I plan on holding till 240 target. Now, every time I try to trade the smaller waves, I get pushed out and the bigger move gets away from me. To my read, fifth wave should be underway and we should retrace Monday or Tuesday. But selling my position has often left me out of the bigger move.

    So this time, I am holding for a month or unless my target is hit. How do you trade the expected retracements? Do you trade such moves? Do you simply hold since the current first move was so strong?

    Thanks,

    Kali

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    Replies
    1. I usually avoid to trade the small waves too, because the success rate is much lower.
      The current situation - I think we have impulse which is still not completed. It could be completed today or Monday - we have to wait. Next week we should see something like 50% retracement. The reaction today was 85 points and the retracement should be bigger because it is of higher degree so easily 100 points or more.

      I have took half of the profits, but my decision was simple because half of my position was long volatility(triple ETFs) it peaks a little bit earlier and it sinks dramatically when we have retracement.

      You have to decide for yourself - waiting and risking to see the profits evaporate or closing and risking the market plunge further or you can close part of the position and wait for retracement next week.
      This are the three choices and you have to decide for yourself. Every trader is different and you have to pick one, which you will be comfortable with. Personal opinion the last one taking some profits is most of the time the best choice.

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  70. I think this is not still the wave C, It is the end of B.
    it is rare for a wave to start from its absolute high.

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    Replies
    1. "it is rare for a wave to start from its absolute high"??? I do not understand what you mean.

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    2. Sometimes a wave dont start from the top, the previous wave can finish in failure from a lower high, especially B waves

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  71. Man, those US indexes are UGLY. Island reversals on dailies, engulfing candle on weeklies, and shooting star on monthlies. Trifecta!

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    Replies
    1. Well, a little late trading day "lipstick" smeared on these pigs - didn't help their looks much. Next week will be interesting.

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