Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - the indices turned lower to complete the 4y cycle. Intermediate term - higher into the second half of September.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - pullback into FOMC and higher to complete the pattern.
Intermediate term - some kind of w-x-y/B or a-b-c/B, at the end only the labels are different. Now turned lower and most likely the C-wave is running. Next we should see intermediate top and bigger decline.
Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - look very weak barely moved higher.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - pointing lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - pointing lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - pointing lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - looks like double bottom.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - this should be 20d high and a few days lower for a 5w low will fit good.
Week 10/4 for the 20w cycle. Visually I expect 18m cycle consisting of three longer 20w cycles(week 4 of the third). On the chart above I will stick to the theory and count four 20w cycles(week 10).
The highs do not have average length too. I think we have 4y cycle high consisting of 2 cycles instead of 3x18m cycles like the previous one 2018-2022 with a high in the middle.
Rsi bring this low makes me feel like a C up would be an awesome way to finally kill the bears before the drop
ReplyDeletewe should have a little pump before the genius speaks on wednesday...
ReplyDeleteJP
NDX: I see a neutral triangle from 19 july, target 16500
ReplyDeleteDo you believe we saw 5w low yesterday?
ReplyDeletei think the 5 week low is around mid next week maybe around wednesday sept 27. krasi does it fit ?
Deleteone more thing if mid next week is a 5 week low then early october would be the next high to short big time.. krasi does it fit your analysis ?
DeleteJP
i am assuming august 25 not 18 as the last 5 week low. you can better see it on the dow.. thank you
DeleteJP
MS - There is enough for 5w low 10+8 days and the pattern looks complete so yes.
DeleteI can not nail the bottoms/tops because this short cycles vary 8-9-10-11 days plus there is a news today
JP - even from 25.08 there is enough days 10+8 one more week looks too long and we need to see 2 weeks higher too.
For example this is an option - https://invst.ly/11gczo
DeleteThe low is in a few days but a higher low.
BB reached on almost every index at close
ReplyDeletei think we have a little bounce tomorrow followed by a mini crash into next week. we'll see
ReplyDeleteJP
too much damage was done after the genius spoke yesterday. we broke an important trendline which should lead to a test of the august lows at a minimum but probably lower. based on the wave structure the decline could morph into an ending diagonal, but regardless we are going lower into next week.
DeleteJP
It looks like flat correction to me - https://invst.ly/11gsja
ReplyDeleteThe B-wave and 5w today followed by C-wave 10w high
there is zero buying pressure so far.. we may have a crash unfolding
ReplyDeleteJP
we didn't even test the cash open gap let alone close it so far!!
Deletemaybe just maybe the last 5 week low was sept 7 which would be EXTREMELY bearish into early october..
ReplyDeleteJP
This are the two options I see - https://invst.ly/11gxn4
ReplyDeleteThe flat and a little bit more bearish a-b-c lower now in 3/c followed by X-wave.
thanks krasi. i will go with the red scenario.
DeleteJP
with a potential outright crash scenario in mind as we are breaking as i write an extremely important trendline
DeleteJP
There is no broken important trend line, they are lower - https://invst.ly/11h05z
Deleteit can't even test the cash open gap after 2 days so far.. for sure it doesn't look bullish. if it still can't by the close i think we will have a bloodbath next week.
ReplyDeleteJP