Trading trigger - buy signal. In the time window for a high.
Analysis - final wave completing the correction and turn lower to complete the 4y cycle low. Intermediate term high in 1-2 weeks.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - trying to find some pattern in this sideways mess... NYSE/DJI and RSI say the pattern is double zig-zag with Fibo mesaurements show the top 40 points higher from the current level. Variations are possible like b/y is triangle and completes around FOMC then c/y.
Intermediate term - we have a-b-c/B with complex b/B wave. SPX looks like expanding triangle, but if you look NYSE or DJIA it is a running flat. This pattern works for almost every index.Alternate the B-wave started earlier in June.2022 which does not change much... only b/B is bigger.
Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024. Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started. Example pattern for "lucky b-wave".
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - time for a top, but no reversal yet.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero, multiple divergences.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - at overbought level 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - short and long term divergences.
Advance-Decline Issues - short and long term divergences.
Fear Indicator VIX - third low at the same level.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - in the middle of the next 20d cycle high. Somewhere in this sideways mess we have 5w high and low and now moving higher into 5w/10w/20w cycle high.
Week 6 for the 20w cycle. Rising into 20w cycle high currently at week 19 discussed above.
Long term the previous 4y cycle high is repeating - 3x40w cycles/two years for mid-cycle high(2018-2019 / 2022-2023) and down into 4y low.
Karsi, I found https://twitter.com/2kaykim/status/1733460360391176644 this chart showing this way of SPX movement towards ATH and saying it will go on for next 3 years bull market. can you share your views on the logic? I notice there it is a abstract with no reference to EW or any forms of charting or fundamentals.
ReplyDelete"After a correction, primary-term uptrend can last 1 to 3 years before the next correction"
DeleteThe correction is not completed.
I am confused. do you mean that it will be a bull market is already here? there wont be a 1000 points drop from 4600 now?
DeleteQuote from some guy on twitter stating after correction 1-3 years of bull market will follow.
DeleteI am asked to comment and my answer is - the correction is not over...
oic. as a rookie market participant, I got this question - if I can withstand drawdown of 1000pt on SPX, does it mean I can just dollar cost average down anytime from even now (at high)?
DeleteCost average makes sense for building position,small pull back... buying a high and cost average 1000 points lower is just stupid - it does not make sense at all.
DeleteThis question makes sense only if you think the market will go higher and if you are wrong you will just continue buying even if it fall 1000 points.
Lets assume this is the case and it will go higher - when is the right moment to buy? Why should you buy overbought state with 20w cycle high at week 19? Isn't it better to wait for the next significant low? - much better price with much lower risk. Think about this....
Even if you are not sure for the direction there is many clever trading strategies to maximize profit and minimize risk - it is not just buy and watch.
Majority think linear and with bullish/bearish bias - example is when my analyses say correction from the 4y cycle high until the 4y cycle low all they imagine is short all the time - really poor imagination.
Your question has the same style - just be more flexible... even if you are bullish why should you buy a top when you can buy a low.
thanks. very insightful.
Deletekarsi, if you are looking at the market now, do you sense anything? any feel on the daily upward push? it feels like machine buying. what is the limit of the final up push.
DeleteDrifting higher into FOMC nothing unusual, day 7 for the 20d cycle high so again nothing unusual.
DeleteIf not in the lucky b wave and the multi year decline has started do you have an idea where it goes? Back to 2009 levels? I'm assuming if we do have the lucky b wave it still goes to this same area after?
ReplyDeleteEventually yes, the path to top will not change this.
DeleteWhy does it have to go back to the 2009 area eventually? Besides economical and cultural stuff is there a technical reason for it to go back to this area? Like EW, cycles, etc. I'm trying to understand why but im not familiar with that stuff. I'm more of just a long term investor.
ReplyDeleteThe "economical and cultural stuff" is the reason. EW is not a reason for anything it just plots the mood of the masses on a chart in the form of waves.
DeleteSo to the point EW guy who can really count waves not like Neely and Prechter - http://blog.wavetrack.com/shock-pop-drop-inflation/
Added cycles in recent years phenomenal Fibonacci measurement system. If I would ever pay an "expert" for analysis it will be this one and it will be worth it every cent....
Statistics - real bear market which purges greed and resets various fundamental indicators in line with previous historical occasions - this means 75% decline. I watched a video with all this statistical explanation 1-2 years ago... I do not remember where, I remember the number - I am talking about real bear market not the meaningless definition 20% decline.
Thank you for the solid answer
DeleteIt is not going back there just makes a good looking chart. I just hope market goes down to 3450 like this chart shows…..the pullback to 4350 seemed to disappear
ReplyDeleteI wish the reason is a good looking chart.... but it is just the consequence of real life.
DeleteKeep living in your bubble that everything is fine... business as usual... maybe reality will not happen.
"the pullback to 4350 seemed to disappear " - this drawings are NOT price or time projection, they have never been, they are showing the pattern shape a-b-c or whatever.... nothing more.
DeleteRepeating over and over the same bullshit - did I stated somewhere that it will decline to 4350 - NO.
If I make price projection I will write this and explain it.
Why do you think the EW site is the best one and not other like Neely and prechter?
ReplyDeletePrechter trying to count an impulse from 2009, impulse lower from the 2022, impulse from the last high - count what fits my view.... making up impulses.
DeleteNeely - the last I heard in the comments his triangle from 2000 is completed and what follows is pink unicorns flying in the sky ahead... if true he is just delusional... probably trying to justify his huge ego. I watched video "my waves are better than your waves" he can not just fail, his neo-waves are better waves.
And ther are other that say, we are in the last leg of this cycle and expect for 520 for spy
ReplyDeleteNot reading other analysis much.... In fact I do not know who is "famous" now.
DeleteSid - read a few times his blog long time ago... not very impressed, but he started using cycles maybe he is better now:)
Like sid
ReplyDeleteI looked his recent posts - the same like Prechter impulse from 2009 - move lasting 14-15 years and wave 2 is two months long....yaaa sure count what fits me.
DeleteAnd his cycles awful.... does not combine EW and cycles at all just pasting 4y lows somewhere at the beginning or in the middle of a pattern. He has not learned anything for all this years, the same mediocre stuff but with new fancy page to collect subscriptions.
it looks like an ED may be forming over the next few days in sp to complete this leg up. we should top this week.
ReplyDeleteJP
what is thinking on SMH, semiconductor ETF - so much momentum
ReplyDeleteThe same I do not see anything different
DeleteATHs a comin'
ReplyDeleteHow this will change anything? Suddenly it will not be mid 4y cycle high? Suddenly there will not be 4y cycle low? Suddenly there will be no more divergences? Suddenly it will not be a corrective move?
DeleteIt does not matter the market is making MAJOR top.
I guess catching the move from 4100 to 4850+ might change someone's bank balance quite handsomely
DeleteMy forecast was for a low at the support level and higher till the holidays - this is what is happening.
DeleteIf someone trades or does not trade is not my decision.
And those with "ATHs a comin' " will change their bank balance when they close the trade and guess what will happen - they will not close it because they are emotionally invested and some will even ride it all the way down. Paper profits are just that on paper and nothing in the bank account.
You are not so smart as you think.
Not to mention the arrogance 4850+ counting not even paper profits already in his bank account - really stupid sheeple.
DeleteIt is very easy to spot a top - watch for the number of comments and arrogant sheeple all over the place thinking they are the smartest.... I am deleting comments again like 2019 and 2021 - I do not need analysis to tell what is happening....
I do agree with you that if someone can't cash in a 600+ points move and let profits come back to zero, then yes they shouldn't be trading! Good luck with your correction!
DeleteThe Santa float
ReplyDeletewe may be completing waveC of an ABCDE ending diagonal today. if so we should top by friday or next monday.
ReplyDeleteJP
What if October was 40w low?
ReplyDeleteThan this is 40w high as it should be
Deletethere is other possibility: It is not usual but ...
Deletejuly 2023 and march 2022 40w high
september 2021 and december 2022 18m high
june 2022 and october 2023 40w low
october 2021 and march 2023 18m low
so it is only 20w high
then we have 3 cycles de 18m with 2 cycles de 40w like theory says
This level of bullishness is madness. Everyday 20points up on SPX, randomly buy randomly jackpot.
ReplyDeleteEveryday the same, just blindly buy, make money, madness!
ReplyDeleteHA-HA-HA delusional sheeple at the top.
Deletewaiting for this magical top?
ReplyDeleteAny minute now I reckon!
DeleteNothing magical the same repeating every two years like a clock and the sheeple still do not get it.
DeleteIn your face and you still do not see it. Every time is different and every time the outcome is the same.
ATH on DJIA. SP to follow!!
ReplyDeleteAnd where were you last year? Now is this statement meaningless.
DeleteAnd what after ATH buy sell? You do not have a clue just repeating....
Does it feel like correction is near…not even close - so confident on the analysis here while being so wrong …
ReplyDeleteNot a correction the whole 2023 move higher will be fully retraced. Nothing wrong - analysis was for a move higher into the holidays you just do not like the message what is next.
DeleteThe market does not care what you like, me neither - hold your paper profits and you will see what happens (hint evaporate).
Karsi, i am at a lost on what to do now. any feels from you now?
ReplyDeleteBuy the trash stocks, you'll probably do well
Deletewhich are the trash stocks?
DeleteThe path is explained above and it is pretty clear.
DeleteYou are emotionally lost - no one can help you with that. Only you can learn to control them.
We go to 20d low in the 2-3 next days?
ReplyDeleteUnless the pattern is completed and it will be longer than 2-3 days.
DeleteOr yesterday was 20d low and high
DeleteHi Krasi, what is your trigger for going short? A close before MA10 on daily chart? I am assuming you are getting closer to concluding that pattern is complete.
ReplyDeleteGiven the strength, the holidays , this trigger count(at 35 already) and the fact almost all tops were a process taking roughly two weeks time - the mostly likely outcome is topping process.
DeleteShort said low risk entry is the high after MA10 is touched or broken bellow it.