Weekly preview

Another sharp decline and zig-zag higher. The indices are close to 20w high and it is getting more likely that this is a top of a higher degree. Months ago I was talking about complex Y-wave with triangle and NDX is looking like triangle now. Expect decline for 10w low, higher for 20w high and with the current price action most likely 4y cycle high.

This is not good - instead of a decline into March to energize for another push higher the market is engaged in topping process lasting months with the sheeple aka retail investors sentiment off the charts "Largest Buy Imbalance In History: Retail Euphoria Breaks All Records", "JPM sentiment is even higher than the peak of the meme mania in 2021". And the verbal aggresion is now magnitudes higher than in 2019, not that I am surprised - simple human greed and stupidity.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - several weeks and 4y cycle high. Topping for several months running.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - another sharp decline and zig-zag higher. Probably part of a decline into 10w low.

Intermediate term - complex Y-wave and triangle y/Y is back on the table. This is not good because it means important top.

Long term - zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no change some with divergences, some in the middle of their ranges, some with buy signal.
McClellan Oscillator - lower highs.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range with divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - multiple divergences.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 20d high, next we should see decline into 10w low... it counts better as three cycles so far.

Next important low should be 40w low... maybe we are seeing 18m low/18m high sequence. Possible 4y cycle high and how it could look like.

Weekly preview

Turn lower as expected and corrective retracement. No change this should be the c-wave lower to MA200.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term important top it could be 4y cycle high. Intermediate term turn lower into 40w cycle low.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - sharp decline right on schedule and zig-zag higher two legs with the same size - all this should be part of the c-wave(red) lower.

Intermediate term - maybe the top was in November with completed impulse c-wave. Now flat pattern running, currently at the top of the b-wave and next is c-wave down to MA200.
Alternatives - this is the top with a complex w-x-y/Y wave and of course plenty of "EW experts" with fifth wave of an impulse.

Long term - zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no change some with divergences, some in the middle of their ranges, some with buy signal.
McClellan Oscillator - lower high.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - multiple divergences.
Fear Indicator VIX - multiple divergences.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 20d low now higher into 20d high. The indices are at 10w high.

Next important low should be 40w low - earliest in March or it could stretch until May.

Weekly preview

It looks like the b-wave was completed this week with c/b extending from 1 to 1.618 and SPX squeezed a few points above the ATH. I do not see other US indices with new highs, but it does not matter this few points were enough for the most people to freak out and the trolls going ballistic.
For what? for nothing just the top of a b-wave. For the second time after 2019 I have to disable comments so for sure this is a top.
Nothing changed we have 40w high in November and the market is turning lower into 40w low. This is b-wave at 10w high.

TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - long term important top it could be 4y cycle high. Intermediate term turn lower into 40w cycle low.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - wave c of b extended to 1.618, perfect impulse for the c-wave with extended fifth wave and perfect Fibo levels at two different degrees. I have not seen this for years.

Intermediate term - maybe the top was in November with completed impulse c-wave. Now flat pattern running, currently at the top of the b-wave and next is c-wave down to MA200.

Long term - zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - neutral... some with divergences, some in the middle of their ranges, some with buy signal.
McClellan Oscillator - very overbought level and turned lower.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - multiple divergences.
Fear Indicator VIX - multiple divergences.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - at 10w high, stretched 20d cycle high.

Next important low should be 40w low - earliest in March or it could stretch until May.

The top

In 2019 I had to disable comments because trolls went in overdrive with their stupidity and insults. Back then I wrote no one will learn anything and at the next major top in 2025(9y cycle from the 2018 high) the same will repeat.... 2025 just started and I must disable the comments again.
Trolls, emotionaly unstable people, dreamers everything is great again... the messiah just took controll nothing could go wrong:))))))
With all this stupidity I will not be surpised if this is MAJOR top.

It is so simple look at the charts.... but no one cares, still two charts.

The top in 2021/2022 and now are exactly the same - time and shape,even the time window November-January. Summary 7 weeks topping process and 10% lower.
Back then NDX made lower high other indices higher high. Now some could make higher high other lower high. It does not matter next move is at least 10% lower.

And all the VIX bullshit.... this is how volatility looks like - higher.

Weekly preview

It seams like a-b-c correction lower completed and now the next leg higher, but if you look other indices like DJ,SPXEW it is more likely a-b-c correction higher and 10w high with reversal lower to follow.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - long term important top it could be 4y cycle high. Intermediate term turn lower into 40w cycle low.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it looks like a-b-c lower and now higher, but I think it is in fact a-b-c higher(red) and next is lower.

Intermediate term - the first target should be MA200 and support in the 5600-5700 area.

Long term - double zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned higher.
McClellan Oscillator - cclose to overbought.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - multiple divergences.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - expect 20d high it could be 10w high too.

Next important low should be 40w low - earliest in March or it could stretch until May.

Weekly preview

Nothing new, it looks like a pause during the holidays the b/2-wave for 5w high and now the next leg lower 3/c.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term important top it could be 4y cycle high. Intermediate term turn lower into 40w cycle low.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - some sideways move and second leg lower.

Intermediate term - nothing new the first target should be MA200 and support in the 5600-5700 area.

Long term - double zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - oscillators resetting and turned lower... I would say one more decline for sustainable low.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - oversold level.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - base for another run higher?

HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 5w high divides in three shorter cycles and next should be lower into 10w low.

Next important low should be 40w low - earliest in March or it could stretch until May.

2025 what to expect....

Sharp decline the first half of the year in the range 20%-30% followed by retracement or higher high... probably for the rest of the year. After we see the decline we can make some conclusions what to expect after that.

From pattern perspective the move from the important low in 2022 is complete and we have two legs from the covid low in 2020. So either we have:
- completed pattern zig-zag and reversal, the first decline is usually followed by deep retracement.
- or wave 4 decline of the same degree as the one from 2022 followed by wave 5 and higher high.

From cycle perspective... explained already how the 7 year cyle and 9 year Hurst cycle synchronize:
- the 7 year cycle has series of short-short/long-long cycles and next year is time for the next important cycle low.

- the 9 year Hurst cycle - if you stick to the theory next year should be 4 year cycle low followed by M-pattern and reversal into 9y cycle low.

Best fit 4y cycle and the 40w cycle since 2020, the pattern - impulse shown which is not a guarentee.....