Oct 18, 2025
Update
Choppy price action, definetively corrective waves most likely b-wave triangle.
I see possible impulse lower followed by zig-zag higher and another one lower retracing 78% which is typical for triangle.
It looks like the market is heading for 20d cycle high - another 2-3 days to complete triangle will fit perfect.
Notice how the price action develpos below MA10.
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I think 10w low was 10 october
ReplyDeletePer StockCharts.com, Jim Miekka's "Hindenburg Omen" was triggered for the ninth time in the last ten years on Friday October 10's bloodletting. The prior six occurrences were followed by meaningful corrections for the S&P500 and Nasdaq 100.
ReplyDeleteKrasi, now that the nasdaq is basically at ath, japan smashed through ath, france, australia the same, sp500 there abouts, what is the level on sp500 that you see as the count above being wrong and we are in another strong up wave?
ReplyDeleteThe market is topping and turning lower for correction this is the third top in a month... what is so complicated to understand - the broken trend line? the divergence? - https://invst.ly/1cua3q
DeleteThis is the best case which is not much different - https://invst.ly/1cuafv
No need to overcomplicate. Markets clearly bullish on all higher time frames such as yearly/quarterly/monthly/weekly. As long as ES and NQ is trading above their September highs, you don't go short.
DeleteFirst you are mixing analysis with trading which is not the same.
DeleteSecond with double RSI divergence on all time frames monthly,weekly,daily,4h I would not call the market bullish... was fits better.
Do you have any count to see 4000 for 40w low?
ReplyDeleteNo, I do not see 3000 points lower in the next 2 months.
Deletethen how low can this drop goes? 5000? 4800?
Delete38%-61% retracement which something like between 6000-5600
DeleteThere is a big unfilled gap visible both on daily and weekly TF around 5700 back in May. Needs to be rebalanced at some point.
Deleteminimal evidence but Krasi, your timing for the turn lower is starting to look spot on, hopefully the momentum to downside increases
ReplyDeleteWell look at smart money positioning in VIX https://www.barchart.com/futures/commitment-of-traders/interactive-charts/VI*0
ReplyDeletewhat does the chart means on vix, please explain.
DeleteSmart money, red lines in the the bottom sections are net long a lot, if you look at the history they rarely wrong, meaning there is a high probability of a vix spike
DeleteShort term its beginning to look like a potential continuation pattern. Getting tight so a bigger move up or down should be close now
ReplyDeleteand just like that the selloff over?
ReplyDeleteYes, like in February it is over.
DeleteTired of all this stupidity - study the charts.
Would you mind updating the short term chart based on the recent price action? Thx
Deletehttps://invst.ly/1cwm3i
DeleteThank you! How far can that final "v" or "b" reach you think?
Deletedid it just blow through the upper resistance again?
DeleteNo - https://invst.ly/1cx1fv
Deleteftse now also made new ath, one by one world indices breaking higher, correction lower over
ReplyDeleteProud to show cluelessness.....
Deletespx 6800!
ReplyDelete