Update

Nothing new to add, more of the same mess up and down. I think the indices should be close to 20w low then we should see something higher into the second half of April for 20w high

Update

More of the same mess, but the price and market breadth turned lower. If you look at other indices like SPXEW,DJ,DAX it is obvious that the top is in and decline has started.

It is difficult to pin point a pattern and the exact path in this mess - the idea is the index is in the middle of the second leg lower which should complete around support the previous low in November.

Adding trend lines and support to the current pace and timing and it looks like this for the next important low early summer June/July.

Update

More of the same up to the trend line connecting the recent highs and turn lower. I am trying to find a pattern in this mess lasting months and below is what I can see... if it will play out or not I can not say, but it will make pattern and timing look perfect with the 40w high lasting 32-33 weeks.

Complex pattern w-x-y - zig-zag with triangle.
You could move the x low to the left than we have completed triangle and the top is in... no guarentee with this mess.
The same for the NDX and the DJ could be a zig-zag with a flat w-x-y

The same works for the DAX w-x-y - flat with a zig-zag. Timing will be much better completing 10w high from the last high, now it is a little bit short, but again there is no guarentee so close to importatnt top.

Another week or two for the 40w high means length 32-33 weeks and it will have perfect length like the previous 40w low and high.

Update

Timing starts looking perfect - 2 months from the December high for 10w high, 4 months from the October high for 20w high, next week is week 31 close to the average for 40w high, 15 months from the last important high in 2024 for 18m high(average 14-16 months), 4 years after the last major high.

The pattern looks now close to completion and the timing looks perfect. Watching a top for the history in a slow motion......

Update

SP500 tested the previous highs and turned lower printig bearish weekly candle - it does not look good.... watching a major top in a slow motion for more than three months.

High probability the pattern is complete - bounce early next week and turn lower. Alternate it could take another week for triangle wave c.

Look at the weekly candle - do you spot the difference?

Update

The choppy price action and the topping continues. SPXEW/NYSE with more clear price action, NDX/SP500 are mess. Based on time this should be the final move higher from what ever pattern this is.

The pattern I see at the moment zig-zag and flat.

SPXEW update the expected pattern at the expected time.

Update

Some bigger wedge is running. With so much choppy price action you can find different patterns, but the idea is the same - the market is topping for three months now.... similar to the last year around this time.

Update

Updated chart of the SPXEW - there were comments that it creates only confusion. No, the opposite - we see more clarity because SP500 is heavily skewed by a few mega tech stocks. On the equaly wighted index you can see clearly the pattern and the cycles - strong a-wave, the long sideways correction b-wave and the weak completition the c-wave.... with all the 20w/40w cycle highs and lows right on schedule.

This one was posted on 6th of December as possible pattern - c-wave

Eight weeks later it looks like this is the pattern. The cycle lines are pointing to the second week of February - if the 4-th wave is a triangle or flat probaby it will take a few weeks and reach the time target, if 4 is completed next week we will see the final move c/5/C.
Worst case it is done... SP500 already completed zig-zag higher.

Update

From the last high this is month 14 so we have the minimum length for 18 month high and this is 4 years after the previous important top. It is done or it could take a few more weeks.... I do not know.

The most simple view - wedge pattern which is an ending pattern, the price broke lower, gap closed, testing the broken trend line and now it is lower.

Or it could take a few more weeks to complete the c-wave with some bigger wedge or what ever it is.

Update

The same like last week waiting for the ED to be completed.

Perfect pattern will be to complete this a-b-c with c as a diagonal and the whole move is one big wedge.

McClellan Summation Index looks the same like at the previous 4y cycle high - double divergence and very weak at the top reaching only the 500 level.

Update

In December I was talking about possible wedge/ED to complete the pattern and now it is pretty obvious. This is an ending pattern it occurs as wave v of 5, it occurs as double top similar to 2022 and 2025, it occurs 4 years after the previous important high, divergences daily/weekly/monthly charts, divergences market breadth.... short said it does not look good - with high probability this is the 4y cycle high. More important I think this is the high for the whole move since 2009.

Clear wedge or a-b-c wedge in a bigger wedge.

It looks like ED for wave v of 5 with double RSI divergence and similar double top like 2022 and 2025 making slightly higher high... NDX has a lower high like in 2022.

For the year expect lower into the summer and retracement after that. Optimistic target is the middle trend line and MA200, pesimistic and bearish is the lower thrend line.