Apr 25, 2026

Update

The short term pattern seems to play out - waves 4 and 5. The question is how long it will take before turning lower - from time perspective another 2-3 weeks will look better. Market breadth with long term double divergences, needs some time to turn lower and maybe short term divergences.

It looks like wave 4 and 5 playing out.

Possible patterns - wedging impulse or double zig-zag with Y the same size and mirror image of W.
Some thoughts about cycles..... when a cycle of the same degree makes a lower low it means the cycle of one higher degree turned lower.
Example - after a 40w low in November last year we have a lower low in March this year which means the 18m turned lower, but instead of a pause and continuation into July we see sharp move up. This should not happen and it is extremely rare.
But if you go back to 2020 where the current 9y cycle begun... do you notice something? We have a sequences of 2.5 years consisting of one 18m and one 12m(40w+20w) cycle. Back then I was expecting 4y cycle low in 2023 which did not occur.
If you assume the 7y cycle does not follow the theory and instead of 2x3.5y consists of 3x2.5y cycles the anomaly explained above sudenly is perfectly normal.
It think this is what is happening, which means to expect 4y cycle high followed by 18m cycle low late 2027 for 7y cycle low.

No comments:

Post a Comment