May 30, 2026
Update
Short term - top next week.
Intermediate term lower into July - I will not be surprised to see the whole advance retraced.
Long term - major top completing the whole bull market from 2009.
I am traveling abroad for several weeks so I will not post updates.
It took two weeks but there we are at the top. Watching other indices like DJ and DAX it will take a few days topping.
SPX maybe this - https://invst.ly/1hrx-l
DJ should complete the c-wave https://invst.ly/1hrxy6
DAX should complete the correction - https://invst.ly/1hrxxl
Long term - the bubble accelerating with every leg. The third leg reached vertical phase with very narrow participation and awful indicators. Now follows what every time happens with a bubble.
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Thanks Krasi. How do you see USD and US 10 year alongside the above please?
ReplyDeletemay be there is one more leg upside if 20w high was in March instead February then this is only 10w high and for July 20-40w and 4y high
ReplyDeleteIt does not make sense the previous high was in January and 4 Months later the next one as expected
DeleteYou are way too early on a major retrace. There has been two major cycles since the great depression. The next will not start until at least 2029. Probably more around 2033-2037. It's always been this way and nothing will change it. It's a cycle as old as humanity. It will become obvious in a few years but by then too late for most. Good luck to all.
ReplyDelete2033-2037 is too late probably second leg lower. There is importsnt change between 2030-2032 - it will happen before that. There is 4 year cycle high now, 4y cycle low in 2027 and 4y cycle high in 2029. There is no problem 2029 to be lower high, double top or something like that. We will know more in 2027...
DeleteKrasi - My work is pointing to a Dec 2026 - Mar 2027 Low. Correction of bear high to Jun-Aug 2027, followed by The Drop into April-June 2029. Your expecting a high in that period. When do you expect the 1st drop from hear to bottom?
DeleteFor context, with the 1st drop bottoming ~5000, or take out Apr 2025 low for perfection, before corrective rally.
Delete7000 is support, 6330 is the last low
ReplyDeleteThe Hormuz Waltz - The orchestra plays on. The water rises. The crowd asks for one more song.
ReplyDeleteNearer My God to Thee
DeleteDAX just completed the move you mentioned?
ReplyDeleteOr the bull trap occurred today... Anyhow, that's a rather bullish gap up this morning. Lets see if it holds.
DeleteDax, in lifeboat already and wondering if there actually is a problem, perhaps false alarm. Dax, Probability, its over - 80%. 20% - could make a 1 day all time high. Just waiting for the SPX, min requirements met. It could still make multiple new rolling highs into the perfect window 5th - 9th. Like cake with no topping, Its complete as it is...
ReplyDeleteWatching 7591, when hit, If it could push through to 7571 to 7561. 60% Prob. The band has stopped playing
ReplyDeletedon't seems to be bearish, consolidating before another run to 7700!
ReplyDeleteDreamer on pullback
ReplyDeleteGet one pullback right in your life
ReplyDeletesell commencing now, trend broken
ReplyDeleteOpp's, SPX jumped on the same side of the life boat - wobble. Now, a calm the nerves correction, back up to 7545 -7581. Then down, to retest ~7530, expecting failure to lead to target 7380-7303
ReplyDeletedow ATH, SPX recover all lost! r u sure there is a crash?
ReplyDeleteOk, now that everyone is calm post upward correction into the zone, its nearly time to test and break ~7530. The correction is good enough - Cake without the cherry
ReplyDeleteThe drop that will commence today from ~7580, will see SPX @ ~ -5% and will likely break the May 19 low (does not need to, but could), then reverse course and head north to 7448 to 7500 - "It's going to be alright" rally. Then, SPX will head south ~6500, it might even take out 31 March low. News at that point, pick your narrative and make it fit...
ReplyDeletewill it go back to 7800 based on ur chart?
Deletethe news : Japan's yen new low and bitcoin new low
DeleteMy earlier comment answers this best. "The Hormuz Waltz - The orchestra plays on. The water rises. The crowd asks for one more song" - The one more, now a -- has been.
DeleteAll hail Krasi
ReplyDeleteYes, absolutely, great work Krasi
DeleteUntil the next ath and everyone turns on him. 2.6 % drop and the sky is falling. Geez.
DeleteThis drop will determine if we are really in a bull market. If it gets bought back up in a few weeks bears have a long couple years ahead of them.
ReplyDeleteThat was easy to predict EW pattern, cycles, techical indicators all working like in the books - you just have to pay attention.
ReplyDeleteThe 20w cycle working like a clock, after the low now the high - next is a low around the end of July.
The pattern is weak final wave retraced for 3 days. It looks like 1-2-3 lower so some retracement and a low, then some correction higher and continuation https://invst.ly/1hxl26
Krasi - Could you please expand on this comment "The pattern is weak final wave retraced for 3 days" 1. What pattern are you referring to? You're saying the bear is weak because it didn't drop hard from the 1 June top? Not sure what you mean. Thanks
DeleteThe final wave higher is weak a wedge fully retraced, now lower the wave is strong and looks like an impulse 1-2-3.
Deletethe mobile version of blogspot is awful it is difficult to post.
Cheers Krasi. Appreciate it.
DeleteWatching the May 19 low. This wave likely penetrates it, but "should" stop (>80% Prob) as per prior comment. However the market moved up from the 31-March low, primarily driven by gamma squeeze - When the squeeze unwinds, if the "system" breaks in the process <20% probability, we could have a market event, similar to 2020 or 1987. If price hits 7171 in this move - the above odds flip, that's the "o dear" price signal. The latter is disruptive, hope it does not happen.
Deleteberg, wat you talking? can speak in plain English.
Delete10w low?
ReplyDeleteSPX full recovery to 7470!!!! what crash?
ReplyDeleteThere we have it the impulse lower.
ReplyDeleteNotice how on the two green bars the trols come out to explain how there is no move lower..... the same way they will ride the whole decline .
Yep - you gotta love it.
DeleteInitially expecting this move to finish ~-5%, it's done that - great, a little too fast. Now starting to think the "oh dear price 7171", vulnerable already. I'm not convinced the down wave today was the end of a 5th. Is it possible, the move up to 7481 completed a running 2? If so, that was just a taste of what's to come...
DeleteThanks Krasi. What's the most vulnerable equity market outside of SPX and NDX? KOSPI perhaps, how do you see that develop?
ReplyDeletelooks like it topped. Similar to 2000, nasdaq topped in spring/summer
ReplyDeleteDJ looks like a wedge to be completed - https://invst.ly/1h-5dx
ReplyDeleteKrasi, have a look at DJ on 12hr chart, perhaps better proportions. Bottom trend line rested 4 june low, looks good.
DeleteOne more high before breaking down?
DeleteWe have good form alignment between multiple index's for the 1st time since the top formed, especially now DJ aligned. Therefore we could get a thumper of a down move, and yesterday was just the kick off, and not 5th of a smaller degree as appears to be the obvious play.
Deletelook spx drop to 7250 and bounced. any more bearishness?
ReplyDelete"It's going to be alright" rally which started on the 6th of June to the up side, well it almost done, hrs left - Cake with no cherry. Only spent least amount of time at the upside target. Currently still in upward correction but locked under the 7333 old bull hideout, below 7355, where the "up move" started . If the bulls are unable to push up when it's their term, then what will happen when the bears pull the trigger on the 11th June US session.
ReplyDeleteits now 7433!!!! bullish yet?
DeleteTo be clear next target as per comment on the 5th June - "Then, SPX will head south ~6500"
ReplyDelete3 cycles of 20 days for 10w low?
ReplyDeletewar and inflation up and yet spx wont die?? 7200 holding!!
ReplyDeletetrump cancel war! 7370! short squeeze started! how to crash?
ReplyDeleteBut krasi said the war ending would be a sell the news event
Deletehow has the war ended?? trump called peace deal 38 times and lied 38 times
DeleteThis is not the crash. It should be obvious by now. There are some people on this blog about to look stupid yet once again. When the market goes back up they will just go silent or move the goal post. No accountability.
ReplyDeleteno more war. 7450 pre market. how to crash?
ReplyDeleteisn't it the case, the market is holding up well.. no crashing anymore? you seeing this karsi?
ReplyDelete7500 target next week! if not, 7350 hit and form a inverted h/s for a run to 7700. how to crash?
ReplyDeleteAs predicted we have the impulse lower now the correction running. So far we have a-b-c and this is the first leg of the correction. Next week we will see the second leg lower then the third leg to complete the correction around the end of June for 5w high - https://invst.ly/1i1-5m
ReplyDeleteHi Krasi … hope you are well .. with this 2 weeks correction upwards , do you still envision a low towards the end of July somewhere in between 6100 and 6500 , or something more pronounced for October ? Thx a lot !
Deletewait.. when u say complete correction end of June at 5w high, means SPX will go higher isn't it? then why short, shouldn't we LONG BIG short term?
DeleteKrasi, can you comment how high can the upward correction goes?
DeleteKrasi, Agree, week of 15th June move down. B or 3,5 bottoming between 18th and 22nd June. Any price targets you don't mind sharing for the pending lower led?
DeleteNice like stive, asklim
ReplyDeleteWhat about the oil, the agreement with Iran cause to oil collapse and same the yields so the market will go up
ReplyDeleteagain? which deal with Iran?? the 1st one or the 38th one trump has claimed?
DeleteIf it's an abc correction, why can't 3 be next?
ReplyDeleteRoberto, exactly. The cake needed a few cherries, perhaps a "candle" to finish things off. The fact 7171 held is good for all, including the bears. The system didn't break, it gets taken out in this swing down in an orderly fashion, selling the bulls more hope along the way. "It's going to be alright rally", ahh the relief...
DeleteWhere is the cycle if it hits a new ath in a few weeks?
ReplyDeleteNow that most of the bulls have been cleared from 7332, straight through to the next bull hideout 6845, bump, on the way to <6500. At that point perhaps hear something like "-10% healthy market correction".
ReplyDeleteI am writing from a phone and it is realy difficult and slow.... and I have just basic charts that is why I am not answering questions.
ReplyDeleteIRAN-US MOU signed. market up 60+ to 7483. how to crash?
ReplyDeleteJapan just hit new ath
ReplyDeleteLet’s see if down week happens,
ReplyDeleteLight pullback now moving past highs =
Joke of a pullback call again
Karsi, perhaps you can explain how it is going to go down with all the positive news now? redraw your chart again at least? seeing a down chart comfort me amidst the stress of a mad bull!!!
ReplyDeleteThe indices will not make it until the end of June the top will be this week.
ReplyDeleteCheck DJ NYSE SPXEW they are completing their pattern now and like February-March SPX NDX toped out earlier.
the question is how low this will go? if its just 7k and bounce back to 8k again, then its a long stressful wait again. I need it to hit 5500 range, dont know how will it turn out.
DeleteWould you mind updating the short term path given todays gap up on Futures?
DeleteNew ATH
ReplyDeleteThere is 2-3 more weeks for the cycle
ReplyDelete“the top will be this week”….did you say this is down week
ReplyDelete7543! crash or bull run forever? come on where's the crash?
ReplyDeletenew ATH as expected
ReplyDeletePoor sheep…they make money for last six years while this analysis leads you to lose all the time
ReplyDelete7571 now! exceeded your chart max limit upside.. are we going 7700 as said bef?
ReplyDeleteThere's a rising wedge on the hourly chart from the low last week, for whatever that is worth.
ReplyDeleteCan’t wait for second and third leg lower by end of June
ReplyDeletekrasi - You were right, nice call - Your comment "DJ looks like a wedge to be completed - https://invst.ly/1h-5dx"
ReplyDeleteDOW 52077! break above rising wedge, still crash?
ReplyDeleteS&P current price 7518 - "It's all right rally up" complete (80% prob) - Cherries, candles it's got the lot. Price: target ~ 6500. Time: up Bounce to start date - 19 to 24 June. Time between now and the projected end of down wave implies significant price move in a short time, before bounce.
ReplyDeleteReally right call market is currently in a down move?!….
ReplyDeleteSo much for the last six years …down will retract the upmove…we were supposed to retrace 3800, 4800, 5800, 6800, …
ReplyDeleteCan’t wait for this chart …let
ReplyDeleteMe guess down move starts today!
7000 first, but maby go higher first
ReplyDeleteDAX looks like expanding ending diagonal for a final wave https://invst.ly/1i7424
ReplyDelete