Sep 9, 2016
Weekly update
The same crap.... which is more interesting and faster:
a) watching your hair growing?
b) watching paint drying?
c) watching the indexes the last 8 weeks?
This says everything - "Over the past 40 days, the Dow has traded in its tightest range in at least 100 years."
I will be away the weekend and next week, that is why I am posting one day earlier. Only two charts, there is no point posting the same charts from last week, analyzing 5 points range:)
Short term I am not sure which pattern will play out. Because of the chart below(better looking 40day/20/40 week cycle) the red scenario looks more interesting - the zig-zag could mutate to even bigger zig-zag(red), the other option is the indexes continue crawling higher. It is not really important.
Around 2160 the buyers stepped in three times(three candles with long shadows and MA50) this is the line in the sand for the two scenarios. As long as the price stays above it green is still alive, but the indexes should rally today or on Monday.
UPDATE: looking the futures 1 hour before the opening the more bearish scenario red is playing out.... unless we see some crazy hockey stick move higher.
The big picture... I am scratching my head for a while and the more I watch the charts the more I think the market is throwing a curve ball and it will surprise most traders and forecaster. The EW guys will count 1-2 i-ii and than 3 to the moon, the cycle guys will count 40 week cycle low in November.... and I think this is wave 1 of ED and we are seeing stealth 40 week cycle low (we are already in the time frame for a low). The upside is limited and the low for wave 2 will be in Q1 2017 with 18 month cycle low.... than of course the bears will crawl out explaining how the market will move to zero.
Sep 3, 2016
Weekly preview
Short term view - higher on Tuesday dip lower the middle of the week than higher again.
Intermediate term view - final move higher in September and correction in October and first half of November.
One more week of the same crap. The market decided to extend the correction to a double zig-zag - one of the paths I have shown so no surprise. The signs point higher for the next 2-3 weeks - after a correction move higher follows, 40 day cycle low and move higher expected, oscillators on the daily chart and McClellan Oscillator are expecting move higher, the indexes moved lower to MA50 on daily chart and reversed, TomDemark one final high needed to finish a countdown on the weekly chart... I think we should see a move higher in September. The only way to count this as a bearish pattern is some kind of diagonal lower. In this case the indexes should reverse on Tuesday and plunge lower.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - price is back above MA50 and MA200, MACD/RSI broke above the down-sloping trend line we have a new move. We need a final confirmation on Tuesday - move above the high from Friday to confirm 5 waves impulse. If we see this I think wave 5 from the June bottom is running.
Intermediate term - one final test of the trend line expected with divergences on all indicators. Preferred pattern is that the final wave of the bull market is ED and wave 1 is finishing followed by 8%-10% correction wave 2(white).
Long term - no change, cool off and reset of the indicators expected.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - the same like last week. We are in a correction for a few weeks and oscillators are pointing higher, but trend indicators need more to the downside so that they reset before the next big move higher. So higher, but limited upside potential.
McClellan Oscillator - several troughs with divergence, move higher expected.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal, but oversold levels.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal, no signs of a weakness.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range and turning higher.
Fear Indicator VIX - still at very low levels, waiting to see divergence or signs of a move higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range and turning higher.
HURST CYCLES
I think we have 40 day cycle low and the next 40 day cycle is running at day 2.
Week 10 of the second 20 week cycle...
Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
One final higher high to finish countdown on the weekly chart will look great:)
Intermediate term view - final move higher in September and correction in October and first half of November.
One more week of the same crap. The market decided to extend the correction to a double zig-zag - one of the paths I have shown so no surprise. The signs point higher for the next 2-3 weeks - after a correction move higher follows, 40 day cycle low and move higher expected, oscillators on the daily chart and McClellan Oscillator are expecting move higher, the indexes moved lower to MA50 on daily chart and reversed, TomDemark one final high needed to finish a countdown on the weekly chart... I think we should see a move higher in September. The only way to count this as a bearish pattern is some kind of diagonal lower. In this case the indexes should reverse on Tuesday and plunge lower.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - price is back above MA50 and MA200, MACD/RSI broke above the down-sloping trend line we have a new move. We need a final confirmation on Tuesday - move above the high from Friday to confirm 5 waves impulse. If we see this I think wave 5 from the June bottom is running.
Intermediate term - one final test of the trend line expected with divergences on all indicators. Preferred pattern is that the final wave of the bull market is ED and wave 1 is finishing followed by 8%-10% correction wave 2(white).
Long term - no change, cool off and reset of the indicators expected.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - the same like last week. We are in a correction for a few weeks and oscillators are pointing higher, but trend indicators need more to the downside so that they reset before the next big move higher. So higher, but limited upside potential.
McClellan Oscillator - several troughs with divergence, move higher expected.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal, but oversold levels.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal, no signs of a weakness.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range and turning higher.
Fear Indicator VIX - still at very low levels, waiting to see divergence or signs of a move higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range and turning higher.
HURST CYCLES
I think we have 40 day cycle low and the next 40 day cycle is running at day 2.
Week 10 of the second 20 week cycle...
Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
One final higher high to finish countdown on the weekly chart will look great:)
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