Long term - update

The big picture - it is calm before the storm... the summer July/August should be calm, but after that we will see risk off trade with stocks and commodities lower and bonds higher.

The current view for the next 6 months:
- Stocks - higher in July until mid-August and decline into year end.
- Bonds - close to 4 year cycle low, 1-2 months lower then trend reversal higher.
- USD - I think it will correct lower for a month or two then higher... similar to stocks.
- Precious metals/miners - the bigger trend is lower.
- Crude Oil - close to 4 year cycle high.



- STOCKS
The big picture - we have 4y/9y cycle high a few months ago and now declining into 4y cycle low.

Fot the next six months - expect 40w high in August and decline into 18m low Dezember/January.

- BONDS
I was expecting 18m cycle high to be completed then lower - we have it. Now we should see 4y cycle low and reversal higher. It is time for risk-off trades.

I would say final low to complete impulse for a zig-zag A-B-C.

- FOREX
In the next six months I expect to see the move which started early 2021 to be completed. Down and up shown in the rectangle then bigger correction.
I am not sure about pattern and cycles, but since the last significant high late 2016(16y cycle high) the USD should be trending lower into 16y cycle low and all we see is sideways corrective pattern lasting 5 years and counting with the price at the highs. The point is all this talk about USD death is nonsense from clueless experts as usual. The USD is building a base and we should see it much higher. But carefull first we should see scary decline to complete the 16y cycle low.

- GOLD/SILVER/MINERS
Gold - the bigger trend is lower until we see the 4y/9y cycle low.

Silver - closer look the decline is corrective. I see flat A and now zig-zag for C. Gold is stronger, but the pattern is the same.

GDXJ - the miners show the same pattern.

- CRUDE OIL
In the next few weeks we should see 4y cycle high.... 2008 is repeating, commodities verticaly higher inflation bla bla the economy took a nosedive and commodities followed suit.

USO - the pattern most likely W-X-Y completing.

Weekly preview

I think the odds shifted and it is more likely that we have 40w low and now moving into 40w high. It is not very likely to see one final lower low - it takes too long to reverse and market breadth shows too much strength.
This does not change the fact that the indices are at 10w high and June should be lower for 10w low.



TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal, turn lower should be imminent.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term high expected.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it looks like we have impulse so next is correction lower. Some indices made higher low on May 20th so the impulse could be part of bigger pattern. In this case the correction should take longer... this is what the cycles are pointing to.

Intermediate term - I see W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y=W.
The trendline is broken now waiting for some kind of MA200/trend line test in summer.

Long term - We saw the high, if we are lucky this is b-wave, if not huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed and it will get very ugly in the next years.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - showing strength for a second week, with high probability we have a bottom.
McClellan Oscillator - turned lower from overbought levels.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - moving higher.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - drifting slowly lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - hit overbought level.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - at 20d/10w high next we should see decline into 20d/5w low.

Next important cycle is 40w cycle high - curently week 28 from the November high(average length 32-36 weeks).