Dec 8, 2012

Weekly review

Short term view - I expect positive start of the week and than to see a pullback.
Intermediate term view - the move up is not over probably another 2-3 weeks higher.

Nothing interesting this week moving sideways. I was expecting the pullback to start this past week.... well we had two and a half days weakness and than the SP500 finished flat for the week.

There is one more push higher as I wrote during the week. Target is the resistance area between 1425-1435. After that a pullback should start with a target the lower channel line around 1390.

Short term - MACD and the histogram are pointing higher so I think we will see a move to the resistance zone.
Intermediate term - the picture has not changed. At this levels there is resistance zone, the MA50 and the broken trend line so after brief move up a pullback should start followed by the last rise for this wave up.
The alternative is that I am completely wrong and a strong rally up is underway....

The Market Breadth Indicators do not show anything interesting... the direction is still up.
McClellan Oscillator - I expect to see divergence after a move higher early next week.
McClellan Summation Index - shows buy signal, the direction is up.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - in buy mode...
Bullish Percentage - does not show much strength for a 3 weeks rally, but the direction is still up.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - heading for the 75% area where this move up should end
Fear Indicator VXO - nothing interesting...

No change here too. The two counts are still intact - first(preferred) chart 20 week cycle has begun in November, second chart we are already in the middle of a 20 week cycle.

This 20 day cycle is already mature and it should top soon.
The indexes are testing the broken trend line (RSI too) and the next move lower should start.

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Sell setup finished last week so the weakness was not a surprise. Currently at 3 of a countdown and 7 of a combo.

No comments:

Post a Comment