Jan 29, 2013
Short term update
UPDATE - I think yesterday(30.01) was the inflection point... do not expect the market to plunge or something like that. Just the beginning of a correction for several weeks
As I have said no bearish signs so the grind higher is not a surpise. I have missed the info that there is FOMC tomorrow and that means there will be no move lower until the meeting. If there will be a pullback it will start with reversal candle tomorrow and that after the meeting.
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Krasi, I guess we find out this week if Demark's combo 13 really works or not. Seems that the market wants to grind higher despite lowered consumer confidence levels. No bad news can cause a pullback. I can't think of any catalyst out there to cause a sell off. Can the markets sell off w/o a catalyst (market event)? Thanks for your wonderful blog. I enjoy reading your updates each day.
ReplyDeleteYes its getting interesting:) I am curious with all signs in place, if we will see reversal today or tomorrow:)
ReplyDeleteThey always push until the FOMC meeting. Its always the same game... my mistake I must check the calender.
Do not worry, there is always excuse for a rally or sell off. The last time the correction started after QE3 announcement - who would have thought that:)
Krasi, the wave trading guy went long on SPXU today. Are you close to going short on this market?
ReplyDeleteI am waiting for a signal from my system... its close 2 of 3 signs but the last one move bellow EMA50 on the hourly chart is missing. There is no enough weakness until the prices are above it.
DeleteThe system is conservative against the trend and usually the signal appears after failed retest of the high/low, the risk is low and the stop is very tight.
From what I have seen in this years it is not worth hurrying.
Now you can see what I mean.... SP500 touched EMA50 on the hourly chart and jumped higher almost touching the previous highs.
DeleteIf it starts moving lower again - short, if not... waiting.
I have seen that thousand times.
krasi, so is demark's combo 14 countdown in play now? What is your forecast for next week?
ReplyDeleteDemark Sequential says SP500 reached the point of exhaustion... we know this from the other indicators too but there is still no bearish signs from the price.
DeleteNext week - Friday's bar is a good candidate for the exhaustion bar which I am waiting for. We will see next week. On the smaller charts the move up does not look like finished so I think we will see higher prices(but not something strong) before any reversal.
krasi, looking at the RUT daily chart indicators, is it starting to roll over? also, what is your opinion of EDZ? seems like the emerging markets (EEM) having caught up with this US rally. thanks for your wonderful blog. have a great weekend.
ReplyDeleteSteve
RUT - when a move is mature such gaps are exhaustion gaps and appear near to the end of a move. If the prices starts rolling over there will be divergences on RSI and MACD... but one nice red bar to confirm this is missing.
DeleteEDZ chart tells me that one final move lower is missing, but it should be short living and we should see divergences on most of the indicators.