Feb 6, 2013

Short term update

UPDATE: SP500 opened higher and as I wrote in the comments that means to expect something around 1520. The index is testing the trend lines on the hourly and daily chart this is the target 1520 plus minus several points. Eventually is happening what I wrote on the weekend but the path... was more than difficult:)
I will post the charts tomorrow... nothing has changed more and more divergences and another TD Combo 13 on the daily chart finished.

UPDATE:I have closed my DAX position after the gap.. 50 points gain. The move up did not look good and I was right when I see what is happening now.
Looking at the daily chart a correction should have begun... but after so many fake outs:) confirmation is close bellow 1495.
My experience with such moves - the big guys make you crazy until you give up and than the expected correction plays out.
Great observation from binve...

UPDATE: Looks like some consolidation/triangle which means continuation. DAX shows divergences on the 1h chart at support... I am now long on the DAX.

Ok close SPX shorts 1508 - 5 points loss.... it takes too much time so I think there will be more on the upside - see the chart from the previous post, it points to ~1520. Do not expect a rally for several weeks, we just have not seen the top. It will take more time to play out.
That is not very bullish because the excess is not cleaned up and subsequent move lower will be deeper.
The signal was good enough, it just did not worked out this time. Now waiting again to see something interesting...
I have been asked what I am trading - in fact I was trading DAX and I took my profits.... I have had luck trading the right index this time:)


  1. krasi, since you are long on the dax, is that also a signal to go long on the spx?

    1. Yes but this is more like 2-3 day pop up not like the beginning of a new swing up. Day trading techniques for entry/exit are better for this situation. My swing trading system is neutral now and with consolidation above EMA50 on the hourly chart says there is more on the upside.
      The DAX has much clearer signal - 3% drop to clear too much optimism, 5 fives down, divergence at support. Good enough for 2-3 days move up. With all this up and down on the SP500 it does not look nice for me.

  2. given today's action, do you still see at least 1520 before any correction?

    1. I really do not know. SP500 is in a range changing the direction constantly, my indicators on 1h and 15min charts are flat for a long time... I can not make normal prediction.
      Daily chart - we have hammer and the histogram made lower bar and that is bearish. If this is the real deal today should be a red day.
      If we see today green day or small red bar the odds are higher that 1520 is the next target.

  3. Krasi, from your experience then, one has to be patient if short. How long will this topping process last in your opinion?

    1. Usually it is 5 to 10 trading days roughly (1-2 weeks).
      We have already 2 weeks sideway action. So next week either fake break out up to 1520-1530 to suck in all bulls and kill the last bear, or start of the correction with break bellow 1495.