Sep 11, 2013


These are the charts which make me think... hmmm this rally should not last very long. On 18.September is FOMC and I think this will be the top for the retracement. Pullback for the rest of the week and move higher till 18.September and probably 1700. See the hourly chart bellow.

Where are the advancing issues???? few stocks are rising

Put-to-Call extremes - the bullish sentiment has not been cleared at all. We saw just pullback 4,5%, no correction no purge of greed/bullishness.

P.S - do you remember the NYMO chart? - deep and long lasting retracement.... the first occasion with 15 days is repeating for now.


  1. Krasi,

    In your short-term charts you are looking for a Y wave lower and then counter-trend higher. Given the extent of the advance could this be that move, the right shoulder, and the next leg down is the real down move to below 1500 SPX?

  2. Hi Topher,
    no that is not the right shoulder it does not have the right "personality"...
    If we assume that I am right:) and this is an important top. In this case in a topping sequence I expect to see is:
    1.rally making higher high, but shorter than usual(check only 29 trading days) with divergences(check MACD weekly and other)
    2.than correction 8%-10% strong enough to scare the bulls - no and no
    3.than weak but deep retracement 50%-61,8% - that is the right shoulder.

    For now - no correction and a lot of complacency. Point two is missing so there is two possibilities - we are still in a correction like the first one on the NYMO chart with very deep retracement and sharp drop(part of the head) or I am wrong and this is not a toping sequence and important top....