Oct 8, 2013


Short term signal: DOWN - it will turn up above 1665
Intermediate term signal: DOWN - it will turn up above 1680
Comment: The bearish scenario, which I showed in the weekly review, is playing out. As I wrote 1680(MA50) was the line in the sand and the close yesterday bellow this level confirmed that more on the downside is to be expected. The strong move killed the most short term scenarios and I think we have now clear down move.
Tomorrow is FOMC which usually marks bottom/top VIX and NYMO outside their BB for second day, so probably we will see a bounce for 2-3 days.

Watch price behavior for clues:
- another leg lower - sell off breaking bellow 1670 <- that is what we see for now.
- fake break out and this is the bottom - reversal candle and strong rally moving above 1680 (MA50 and todays candle's high).

Levels to watch SP500:
- 1710 - resistance
- 1670-1680 - resistance level
- 1627 - support level
- 1598 - is major support.

Here is the updated hourly chart... I am not an EW guy but if this count is right the move lower should touch at least ~1640 where Y=W

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