May 4, 2014
The chart updated bellow.... From last week - "I think we have finished a-b-c at the moment. So either the correction should finish or it could mutate in something more complicated... another wave x and than y. Again for the bullish case I would prefer this move lower to finish above 1850." The market chose the more complicated structure and made lower low, but without any technical damages. You can not deny the beauty of Fibonaci an Elliot waves:) - SP500 touched 1850 an 50% retracement. Wave Y with the same size like W and W as three wave structure with C=1,618xA I think there is a little bit more to the upside left. Using the same relations the targets are 1895 and 1920. But do not fall in love with this "rally". The bigger picture says the next move lower should follow to finish the 20 week cycle with a low probably the first half of June. SP500 and DJIA look strong, but if you look at Russell2000 and Nasdaq they are very weak. There is a very high probability that we are in the middle of a multi-month topping process. I do not think that this is the time to chase something to the upside unless you are a short term trader.