Jul 31, 2014


The bulls are feeling the pain today..... DJ now exactly 0% gain for the year. How bullish is this? I wrote already that it is just an illusion.

SP500 has not found support at 1950 and now this wave is much longer than the first impulse, the price plunged bellow MA50....
I do not see another way to count this move - it is an impulse with extended wave 3. Wave 1(red)=24 points extended wave 3(red)=1x2,1618=63 or target around 1922. We should see 4(white) to 1950 resistance/38,2% Fibo and another wave lower 5(white) with the same size like 1(white) - target is 1927.
Short said watch 1925 support and 38,2% Fibo from the high for the end of 3 red and probably 1900 for wave 5 from the high before meaningful rebound.

The problem is if we see such an impulse lower the move could be something more than a pullback... it could be deeper and last longer than I have expected. Targets 1925 and 1900 does not surprise me at all they are on my list for a long time but the speed and the impulsive move are raising question marks.


  1. HI,
    Great work. Your target are best looks like . Looking at this decline breaking all supports, it could morph into multi-month decline taking all the way to 1600 levels.

    Looking at dollar index breaking to higher highs , this could be a huge correction towards October of this year.


    1. True, there is a high probability that the pullback will morph to a 10%+ correction....