Oct 22, 2014


I have never believed in an impulse lower now it is official - it is not an impulse. The EW logic says this should be some sort of B or X and another move lower should follow.
I am skeptical... I think we saw 20 week or 40 week cycle low and market breadth is pointing to a move higher. I am thinking of August 2007 - sharp 10% decline (check) sharp reversal (check) now a pullback lower for 1-2 weeks should follow (FOMC in 7 trading days - a low?).

If this is B/X and another wave C lower should start any moment, until the end of the week the market should lose most of the gains so that we do not see a bullish weekly candle.
If we see the index wasting time with small pullbacks it is August 2007 again(it is not necessary to see a new high - playing with 2000-2020 for some time is enough). Remember kill the bears, than kill the bulls, than a top:)


  1. Carnap:
    Indeed as said two weeks ago the down move is of corrective nature - simply a DZZ.
    Because of extreme values of the fear parameters and of spread quote extremes the bounce has been obvious and no surprise.
    The target given min. 1944 haven been reached already. At the moment it looks like the last two years “buy the dips” and also from the weekly level the market condition is improving.
    But no reason to change the scenario so far until important levels will be broken.
    That´s why above 1914 we will see a further leg up to 1969/70.

    1. Yes there is more upside.....
      The question is lower high or higher high for expanded flat...