Mar 21, 2015

Weekly review

Short term view - I do not know... rather lower if you ask me.
Intermediate term view - the interesting part of the correction should follow soon.

Higher as expected, FOMC trying to say nothing and EURUSD higher as expected... but the price action is confusing. The move up is stronger than expected for a retracement, but the internal structure is overlapping and looks corrective.

Short term I do not know if SP500 will make another ATH or reverse below the last high.
Intermediate term - technically the correction has started on 25.02 if we see a lower high, or should start soon if we see higher high. Practically it does not matter - as I wrote many times you short a weak higher high with divergences or lower high and this is the current one. The trigger at the moment is if the price moves below 2085.

Short term - here is trying to see a bullish scenario(green).... but we do not have two consecutive green days. How bullish is this? If you ask me it looks to me like a zigzag a-b-c(red).

Intermediate term - the retracement is too deep... so both scenarios are still in play. As I wrote it matters only where to mark the intermediate term top. If you are a short term trader we should have been long this week and if you are intermediate term trader you are waiting the current move up to finish.

Long term - the indexes are moving sideways since the end of November 2014... almost 4 months. I will repeat myself - no change... I know it is boring:)

The Market Breadth Indicators - the oscillators has turned up, but still no change in the bigger picture. The indicators are still pointing rather to a correction than a new move higher.
McClellan Oscillator - moved above zero after mildly oversold level -60.
McClellan Summation Index - still on sell.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - nothing interesting.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - moved higher, still below 75
Fear Indicator VIX - series of higher lows long term
Advance-Decline Issues - turned up, but still a lower high.

Day 34... I think we will see a move lower to finish the 40 day cycle.

Week 7... I am waiting to see how the low of this cycle will look like. It is possible that it is of a lower degree.

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
At day 5 of a setup... I do not know if it will be finished. It depends on which short term scenario will play out.

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