May 25, 2015

Weekly review

Short term view - short living spike higher and than move lower.
Intermediate term view - I am not convinced that this is the top of the wedge...

The indexes made new ATH as expected, but this is really a very weak move part of the wedge/ED and not some kind of a break out and rally. Now let's see if something to the downside will follow and how it will looks like.

Nothing new - the two scenarios are this is the top of the wedge or one more high will follow.
It is prudent to take profits. It is not worth the risk to wait for another high which will be 10-20 points higher than the current one.

Short term - it looks like we have a small triangle above MA50 and last final spike before reversal is missing
The short term support levels are 2123 and 2117. Aggressive short term traders can use them to short, for the others wait to see a confirmation - impulse lower and retracement.

Intermediate term - I think we will see one more high... now waiting to see how a move lower will look like.

Long term - no change.

The Market Breadth Indicators - neutral or bearish... I think short living move lower is to be expected.
McClellan Oscillator - moved below zero despite the new ATH... bearish.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal but in oversold territory. 1-2 weeks lower for a bottom?
Bullish Percentage - sell signal,but not really convincing.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - neutral in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - long term higher lows... wedging too.
Advance-Decline Issues - neutral in the middle of the range.

The top of the 40 day cycle should be behind us... waiting to see something to the downside for 40 day cycle low.

A move lower for 1-2 weeks will look perfect to finish the 20 week and 40 week cycle.
P.S. probably I will have to change the count with the next low only as 40 week low and not 18 month low.

Here is another index NYSE. Pick one scenario:) The truth is you can not say which one has higher probability. I think we will see one more high, but I can not present you convincing arguments... just feeling watching the different indexes in Europe and USA.

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