May 1, 2015

Weekly review

Short term view - more to the downside with a bounce up next week Monday Tuesday.
Intermediate term view - I think this will be a shallow correction before testing the highs again.

This time earlier, I am away this weekend and next week I do not know if I will have time to post something.
As expected SP500 hit ATH and reversed even lower than my target:)

This move does not look like a strong impulsive move. There will be more to the downside probably two weeks. For now I will just watch how the move develops....

Short term - difficult to predict the exact path... short term traders should short moves up.

Intermediate term - so far it looks to me like a correction, but not a big one. Targets are the previous lows 2040 ans 1980-1990.

Long term - no change

The Market Breadth Indicators - are bearish.
McClellan Oscillator - outside the BB move up expected.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - neutral
Bullish Percentage - sell signal
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - I think it will visit the lower range.
Fear Indicator VIX - long term higher lows.
Advance-Decline Issues - I think it will visit the lower range.

High probability that we saw the top of the current 40 day cycle. We should see 2-3 weeks lower.

The same story on the weekly chart - week 13 and average length 14-16 week for the cycle... so 1-3 weeks lower expected

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Setup lower is running currently day 2.

And Russell2000 hit the target 1279 and reversed.