Jun 6, 2015

Weekly review

Short term view - bottom on Monday/Tuesday and than higher...
Intermediate term view - the final move higher before a significant correction should begin early next week.

Lower as expected but more choppy.... nothing new for this pattern from last several months:)
It does not look like a strong break lower from a wedge so the plan is the same that we will see one more final high.
If I am wrong next week we should see a bounce for 2-3 days and a waterfall should follow. It does fit, but do not lower your guard.

Again comparing with other markets - for a long time the markets were out of sync SP500 grinding higher ED, DJT grinding lower wave 4, Europe strong move higher.
I was scratching my head... I was seeing such thing for the first time. But now I think all markets are in sync and the world order is restored:))
SP500, DJT, DAX/CAC all should finish wave 4 of a different degree and are near 40 week cycle low I think.
So one final wave higher should follow, DJT and Europe should outperform... SP500 should move 70-90 higher.
I think the move should be worth trading. It is even better if you have closed your long position earlier. You have booked profits, you do not need to worry for something to the downside and you can enter at lower levels so you will not miss anything.
Risky entry is around 2080-2085 with stop 5-10 points or to wait for a confirmation move above 2100.

Short term - one small wave is missing to finish an impulse... and if I am right this should be an intermediate term bottom.

Intermediate term - tracking how the wedge is developing.... so far as expected.

Long term - nothing new... for several months.

The Market Breadth Indicators - are bearish, but not bearish like important watch out... rather a correction is running.
McClellan Oscillator - negative but not really oversold.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal but in oversold territory.
Bullish Percentage - sell signal but nothing really convincing.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - near the middle of the range, a mess like the indexes.
Fear Indicator VIX - long term higher lows... wedging too.
Advance-Decline Issues - nearing the level where usually we see a bottom.

Bottom expected 40 day and 20 week cycle low.

Bottom expected at least 40 week cycle low.

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
The setup was canceled on Monday....

I have shown months ago(a post about the long term) a chart of DJT - it worked perfect EW and cycles. Now I think the moment has come for a move higher.

No comments:

Post a Comment