Jun 14, 2015

Weekly review

Short term view - not sure... I suspect choppy action before FOMC.
Intermediate term view - final move higher before a significant correction.

Ok we had a move lower 7 points below my target area 2080-2085 and than higher. The plan has not changed - the move lower is not an impulse which means the pattern, what ever it is, is not finished... the ending diagonal which never ends:)

SP500 - the move from the low looks like an impulse. The same thing in Europe impulse from a low. I think a zig-zag from higher degree for wave 4 completed at 50% Fibo for the DAX and 38,2% Fibo CAC. Cycles for the DAX and DJT - it looks like we have a 40 week cycle low at week 35. DJI and SP500 cycles are not so clear because of the messy move in the last 6 months, but I think they are showing the same picture. The signs point to an intermediate term bottom.

Short term - some indexes are still below MA50(DJI,NYSE) on the daily chart. Market breadth - no buy signal, but pointing to a bottom. FOMC on Wednesday... usually around short term top/bottom.
No surprise the nasty move lower on Friday. I suspect the indexes will work on a bottom and revisit the lows and we will see a choppy price action before FOMC.

Short term - I am not sure how it will play out. Some up and down so that the indicators and market breadth turn up.

Intermediate term - it looks like the ED is not finished. No impulse lower and I will be very surprised to see a plunge lower(red).

Long term - adjusted a little bit... three waves below the beginning of the wedge.

The Market Breadth Indicators - there is no strong buy signals... but the indicators are pointing rather to a bottom.
McClellan Oscillator - hit oversold level 60.. in previous occasions we saw a short term bottom.
McClellan Summation Index - still sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal but in oversold territory. We should be close to a bottom.
Bullish Percentage - sell signal but nothing really convincing.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range...
Fear Indicator VIX - long term higher lows... wedging too.
Advance-Decline Issues - close to the lower level but not really oversold signal.

I think this is a low for the 40 day cycle and the next one has begun.

It looks like 40 week cycle low to me looking at DJT and the DAX... if we see 3-4 weeks higher we will have a confirmation.

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Setup at 3 on the daily chart.... because of the extremely choppy moves in the last six months TD Sequential does not help us much.

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