Oct 2, 2015


Since the very beginning I am comparing the move with this four moves lower. Six weeks later I still think that we are not seeing anything new.
Maybe they do not look exactly the same, but you can describe all of them this way - scary sell off,rebound,sideway move, secondary lower low 8 weeks later. Only late 2008 looks a little bit different - much bigger and there is only 6 weeks between the lows, but at the end the dynamic is not much different.
Now many are forecasting that a bear market has begun, the indexes will drop like crazy.... maybe, but even than the markets are not moving in a straight line lower. History says something different.
Late 2008 is mature bear market not the best comparison we are not there yet. The corrections early 2008, 2010 and 2011 look better. Based on history I think we should see another 2 weeks lower with marginal lower low (worst case 1820-1800 the last support level the October 2014 low) followed by 6-8 weeks move higher to test resistance and MA50 like Q1/Q2 2008.

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