Mar 9, 2016

Update

If the idea for wave X is right I expect it to take similar shape to the one shown on the chart. It should burn time so that traders forget about the pain from the two sell-offs and stop talking about bear market.

Very choppy price action... curious to see if it play out:))))
Short term I expect spike higher after the ECB meeting and reversal. Than lower to MA200 hourly until FOMC next week (20 day cycle low).
Than the resistance zone to be tested and March to finish green... I can not say with higher high or lower high before seeing how the moves before that develop. April should start lower to finish wave B and 40 day cycle low than one more rally in May to finish X.

Fibo and support/resistance levels converge very nice, which is usually a sign that this is the right pattern.
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7 comments:

  1. UnknownMar 11, 2016, 3:52:00 PM

    Hello,
    Your analysis is interesting.
    Have you notice that JPY mvt preceded all move of SPX since last year ?
    Your view on JPY would be interesting.


    2 major forces driving:
    oil level --> Saudi fund selling or not...
    China news...(random)


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. KrasiMar 11, 2016, 6:25:00 PM

      Yes, I have mentioned the correlation several times.
      On the daily chart the move looks weak, waiting for MA50 to catch up after vertical move lower, the indicators do not hint that a new move higher has begun. I think we will see one more lower low with divergences before reversal and for SP500 move lower is expected anyway.
      Long term the whole move lower looks corrective. On the weekly chart the indicators RSI/MACD/Histogram are correcting and resetting for more than a year and it looks again more like a long term correction. One more push lower and the price should find support at MA200 weekly. Long term I think we should see one more higher high exactly like SP500.

      I avoid news or looking for explanation why something moves higher/lower - unnecessary distraction and confusion. All you need is the chart, you see there what the price is doing. The only "distraction", which I pay attention, is this correlations because it is important to know how the money flows between different assets.

      Delete
    2. WongMar 13, 2016, 3:14:00 AM

      Hi Krasi, thanks for your interesting analysis. Can I know what is your correlations mean as your above reply? thank you

      Delete
    3. KrasiMar 13, 2016, 6:55:00 AM

      I have not done some complicated research and I am not expert, but the idea is simple:
      1 - the money flows from one asset to another and there is always secular bull market somewhere.
      2 - when one assets moves higher another moves lower.

      Examples:
      1 - at the moment for example we are in a secular bull market for gold and secular bear market for stocks. Look at the long term charts at http://www.macrotrends.net/
      When was the last secular high for gold and when the last secular low for stocks? 1980
      When was the last secular low for gold and when the last secular high for stocks? 2000
      Now guess what will happen with gold when stocks start their final cyclical bear to finish the secular bear?
      What will happen when gold hit secular high and stocks secular low in 2020-2022?

      2 - chart from Rambus Chartology at Safehaven.com http://static.safehaven.com/authors/rambus/40720_d_large.png
      When was the secular high for the USD and secular low for gold? 2000
      When has the bear market for gold started(2011)? When the USD started this strong leg higher.
      Now guess what will happen with gold when the USD makes it final move higher? It will test the lows like in 2000-2001 and start a bull market for 4-5 years.


      And the currency pairs have very high correlation in the last one year with stocks, literally every turn higher/lower. I do not know how long will this last, but for now the correlation is extremely high - DAX follows very close EUR/USD and SP500 USD/JPY.

      Delete
  2. UnknownMar 11, 2016, 8:57:00 PM

    please email.me odinovayulduz@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  3. AnonymousMar 14, 2016, 4:48:00 PM

    Hi Krasi,
    there is a further option that could be break through all of a sudden the next days!
    You counted a first wave A since the Feb Low that is in a matured stage already.
    Because of its impulsive nature the move could be interpreted as a wave C of a Flat pattern since the Jan Low of the 5/C wave.
    Please keep that in mind if we will get a topping out and a dynamic move starting downwards the next days.
    carnap

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