Apr 9, 2016

Weekly preview

Short term view - not sure for the exact path, but I expect a few more days up and down before the pullback is over
Intermediate term view - after the pullback is finished, I expect another move higher to test the ATH.

Nothing new - we have some kind of a pullback. The move is corrective with overlapping waves. Short term I can not say if this iv of 3 or 4.
Intermediate term - last week I switched to the bullish scenario. Now I want to see a confirmation, which means after the pullback is finished another leg higher to test the ATHs. Then we will have an impulse and bullish right translated 20 week cycle.

Short term - it looks more like 4(red), but we need more price action for confirmation that it is not iv with v/3 to follow(green)

Intermediate term - waiting to see confirmation that we have an impulse. We need one more move higher. Red is the bearish scenario double top in summer and lower until October.

Long term - the bullish scenario should test the ATHs with an impulsive move and continue higher in 2017. For the bearish scenario... it could be flat correction for B with C lower to follow.

The Market Breadth Indicators - are showing that a pullback is running and they are preparing for divergences later.
McClellan Oscillator - spending time below 0.
McClellan Summation Index - technically sell signal, but I think you should wait for divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - at overbought territory for a while I think it will last another 2-3 weeks before it is time for a sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - resetting lower after very overbought levels.
Fear Indicator VIX - bounced from oversold levels... wait for divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range, pullback is running.

Day 39 of the 40 day cycle waiting for the bottom of the pullback. On the weekly chart at week 9.

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
On the weekly chart at week 8 of a sell setup. We need a close at 2050 or higher for finished setup. On the daily chart we need one more higher high to finish countdown and combo.

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