Weekly preview

Short term view - the ATH should be tested.
Intermediate term view - another week or two higher than lower.

The pullback began promising the leg lower was looking like impulse and than another move higher instead of a second leg to finish a pullback. I would not say it is bullish behavior not letting the market to correct.

I do not know what this messy pattern is. It is corrective so forget about bear market, but I do not think this is wave 3 either. For me the charts does not look right for a buy signal and long lasting rally. This rally will fail - risking to be wrong and miss the beginning of wave 3 so be it.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - no clue what the pattern is. We will know in hindsight, which means with very high probability it is corrective pattern.

Intermediate term - will the price go vertically higher or test the trend line and ATH one more time before the second part of the correction begins? I think it is the second. If you are a bull pray for the second. Markets moving vertically are not sustainable and exhaust too fast.

Long term - the same story... will the indicators correct or move vertically higher?

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - I do not see any signs for important low just short term bottom. I think we will see the indexes crawling higher for another 1-2 weeks and market breadth building divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - spending time above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal level around 900... and where will wave 3 end if it has just begun at 3000????
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal in he middle of the range.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - close to the upper level 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - at 13 complacency levels again.
Advance-Decline Issues - making lower highs.


HURST CYCLES
Day 8 of the 40 day cycle.

Week 2 of the current 20 week cycle.

This is what I think is going on. This is comparison between wave III and V - how they are moving after the end of wave II and IV.
Wave III - 22 weeks cycle with 4 weeks lower. The next cycle began with sharp reversal and moved 4 weeks higher before turning lower for 9 weeks.
Wave V - 19 weeks cycle with 3 weeks lower. The next cycle began with sharp reversal and 2 weeks higher so far.
I think we will see another week or two before this rally is over and a decline for 2-3 months to finish 40 week cycle.