Oct 11, 2016

Update

I thought with the 50 points plunge in September the market is out of the coma:).... no it just got worse.
Without doubt this is the choppiest and the ugliest pattern I have ever seen lasting so long.

We have one month of triangles with 2-3 sharp but short living moves up and down. Yesterday we saw another candle with long shadow touching the trend line and closing below MA50... not really bullish.
I still think that we are in some corrective structure. This "B" wave is stretching and stretching and stretching... first it looked like zig-zag than like triangle and now like zig-zag with triangle in the middle section(white count).
If we see higher prices probably B of higher degree(red count).... I have to be very creative to see an impulse and to expect new ATH with this mess.

9 comments:

  1. Hi Krasi,

    Looking at S&P 500, the downturn today touched support and rebounded. Do you expect a break in this support in coming days?

    Thanks,

    Kali

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    Replies
    1. By support, I mean support trend line set by lows in feb and June.

      Kali

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    2. Krasi, Kali, the move today looks impulsive. feels like B occured with the push higher in mid Sept and that maybe we are already in C....

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    3. It is a speculation at the moment - my feeling tells me it is more likely to see bottoming today/tomorrow.

      No clear signals - we have what we need spike lower, from the 22.Sept high the pattern looks like finished a-b-c, but no guarantee that this is c and not 1 lower.
      The trend line Feb-Jun hit, but it closed below support 2145.
      TA is pointing lower, but the indicators are a little bit lagging.

      I would wait to see what happens in the next 1-2 days how a bounce looks like, how it behaves around 2145. I expect to see some kind of bottoming not a sharp reversal.

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    4. Krasi,

      Is your 17,900 level for bounce based on a=c? why did you pick 17,900 instead of c = 1.6 x a?

      Thanks,

      Kali

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    5. Yes a=c it is more common. Around 18000 a=c, on the chart I have just drawn a line.
      Now it is interesting when the futures reached the target if we will see a short term bottom.

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  2. Hi Krasi, Great call, impressed you stuck with it...super crazy day to day psychological testing moves here imo. Do you have a target for the RUT? Is it still 1210 or so?

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    1. This call was the easy part because I have seen this "dance" with MA50 many times.
      But now when we have the spike lower it is more difficult. I think the ED looks again better.
      The move from the 22.Sept top looks like finished pattern a-b-c and today we should see bottoming in the 1225-1220 area and reversal higher.

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