Nov 10, 2016
I am in the camp that the 18 month cycle is topping. I do not believe that we are in wave iii of 3 to the moon. I do not see the different indexes to support this idea - SP500 despite the strong rally it is only a-b-c from the bottom. The DAX needs to touch 11k and we will have finished wedge(diagonal 5th wave) from the bottom. Emerging markets best case are in wave 4 and rally higher for the last wave 5. For months I am thinking that the last wave V of the bull market should be a diagonal because I do not see the impulse. We need A-B-C for wave 1 of V. Market breadth indicators need at least 4-5 weeks to reset. So we need a move higher for several weeks, but no too bullish.... I was scratching my head for two days after this sharp move and this came out. The wave from June to August is way too short compared to the wave from February to April... and you need two impulses with similar length. The pattern below looks perfect - EW, cycles, market breadth everything fits perfect. Now everything makes sense.... I should have spotted the pattern much earlier.