Short term view - topping to start and a pullback lower.
Intermediate term view - a few more weeks before we can think of a top.
Nothing new just the charts updated. If this is a wedge from the February low a top should be imminent. Looking at the technical indicators and market breadth I do not see such outcome at the moment. So either the topping will continue for several weeks or it is the pattern which I am following - a wedge but from the June low.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the move from the November low looks like A-B-C to me.
Intermediate term - the two scenarios. Red is a wedge from the February low and this should be the last wave 5.
Long term - no change.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - is resetting higher, but it is visibly much weaker. Expect divergences and important top... but there is a few more weeks.
McClellan Oscillator - well above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - nearing the upper range.
Fear Indicator VIX - building multiple divergences for the next important top.
Advance-Decline Issues - nearing the upper range.
Day 14 from the 40 day cycle. At least a pullback for 20 day cycle low is expected.
Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
The move is strong enough not to expect sudden reversal. We have finished setup and countdown is running.
Silver - the same pattern as Gold. We have 5 waves lower which means the correction which begun is not finished. There is two options - this is wave A and we should expect B and C(red) or we need 7 waves for finished corrective move double zig-zag W-X-Y(green). I thought the USD is still in the triangle in this case A-B-C(red) was looking great... now not so much.
In both cases bounce higher is expected because from the November top we have 5 waves lower with divergence followed by one more lower low. I can not see a finished pattern at the moment.
MA50/MA200 are resistance now. If the bounce higher hit them with a zig-zag than watch the green scenario. If the bounce hit them with an impulse than watch the red scenario.