Happy New Year!!!!
I hope you had pleasant holidays and recharged the batteries. I wish you great trades in 2017:) and very successful year!!!It is time for the next long term update. There is no huge surprises - stocks are higher, bonds high probability that the bull market is over, PM are correcting, energy sector stronger than expected, only the USD surprised a little bit it broke out of the range 1-2 months earlier and it does not look like a triangle now. When I look at the markets I see the same message from USD,stocks,Bonds,PM charts - we need one counter trend move and one more move in the direction of the current trends before they are finished. At the moment I expect this moves to develop in Q1/Q2 of 2017 and later in Q2 should start the transition from "risk on"(stocks,USDJPY) trade to "risk off" (PM,Bonds) trade. - STOCKS The indexes continue moving higher. If you count the move from February as corrective than the bull market is definitely not over(a trend does not end with correction higher) and if you count it as impulse after a correction in Q1 it should continue higher in Q2. So in the next 6 months I am not mega bearish, I will just follow the market. I am not sure if this is an impulsive wave, but I do not see a finished pattern either. So I expect more to the upside. Currently I follow this long term chart and later it will be adjusted if necessary. SilentOne's webinar cycle analysis PM and gold miners with EW annotations from me. I am trading the gold miners that is why I am analyzing PM at all and the chart below is very interesting. BMGI index long term chart of gold miners. We have 14-15 year cycle bottom-to-bottom. Since 1971 the USD is no more coupled to gold and the moves are very volatile. What I see except that it is very difficult to predict the pattern:) - In one 15 year cycle there is two moves higher and two moves lower. - there is more to the upside in the next few years. Gold miners just made 15 cycle low and this they are still in this first move higher. - there is more to the downside after the move higher is finished. I do not think 5 years correction(2011-2016) is long enough to correct 40 years move (1971-2011) EW - I think we have huge A-B-C. You can argue that the top of wave C was in 2008 and we have expanded flat finished in 2016, but I do not think this changes the big picture. I think the next major low will be around 2030-2031 when gold makes secular bottom (this 20 years lower for a commodity cycle) and 20 years correction for 40 years move higher looks better than 5 years. In this case we should expect corrective wave B or X for several years probably some kind of a zig-zag (two moves higher in a 15 year cycle).